Key findings: a roadmap to transform energy use by 2050
Electrification (e.g., switching to electric vehicles, heat pumps) alone could cut direct emissions by 45-77% in buildings and 22-86% in transport by 2050.
Combining electrification, efficiency improvements, and behavioral changes could reduce emissions even further: 51-85% for buildings and 37-91% for transport by 2050.
A multi-strategy approach would lower overall electricity demand by 8-33% per year, making the transition more cost-effective and reducing strain on power grids.
The findings align with global climate goals, showing that integrating these strategies can significantly contribute to limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2050.
"These results demonstrate that the transition to clean energy in buildings and transport can be more manageable than previously thought," explains Johannes Emmerling, Senior Scientist at CMCC. "By combining electrification with improved efficiency and smarter energy use, we can achieve dramatic emissions reductions while actually reducing strain on electricity systems—leading to lower costs and fewer infrastructure challenges as we tackle climate change."
By focusing on how we heat our buildings and move around, the research provides a practical roadmap for addressing climate change. It shows that major emissions reductions are possible through three key strategies: electrification, which includes electric vehicles and heat pumps; improving energy efficiency through actions like better insulation and more efficient air conditioning systems; and altering how we use energy, such as by reducing dwelling sizes or adjusting thermostat settings.
Crucially, this work suggests that these key strategies can be implemented using existing technologies, like electric vehicles and energy-efficient building materials, without having to wait for future innovations.
Why this matters: a science and policy challenge
Unlike previous studies that examined individual measures in isolation, this research takes a comprehensive approach, using multiple Integrated Assessment Models to explore how different strategies interact, providing more robust and reliable results than previous single-model studies.
"Our study highlights the often-overlooked demand side of decarbonization," says Alice Di Bella, PhD candidate and affiliated researcher at CMCC. "By comparing results from multiple models, we provide robust evidence that electrification, efficiency, and behavioral shifts are practical and effective solutions for climate mitigation."
The study used seven global integrated assessment models, including the WITCH model developed at CMCC, to evaluate emissions reductions across different regions and policy scenarios. CMCC researchers played a key role in analyzing strategy interactions, emission scenarios, and cost evaluations, drawing on the center's expertise in climate research and economic modeling.
Next steps: turning research into action
The study provides critical insights for policymakers, emphasizing that relying solely on electrification could create unnecessary burdens on electricity systems. Instead, a balanced mix of efficiency improvements, behavioral shifts, and electrification offers the most effective and economically viable path toward decarbonization.
"Our work highlights that the tools to cut emissions are already in our hands," says Emmerling. "The main challenge lies not in technology but in policy and strategic implementation. By combining these strategies smartly, we can achieve significant reductions while making the transition more affordable, reducing strain on electricity grids, and ensuring a more sustainable future."
