Researchers at UCL and the University of Leeds are to lead a new project aimed at developing an early warning system for climate tipping points by analysing past climate data through advanced modelling techniques.
Co-lead of Project VERIFY, Professor David Thornalley (UCL Geography), along with a team of interdisciplinary researchers from UCL and seven other UK research institutions, will receive a £5 million grant as part of the Advanced Research and Invention Agency's (ARIA) programme on Forecasting Tipping Points.
Climate tipping points are critical moments in the Earth's system that, when crossed, can lead to significant and often irreversible changes. Predicting these tipping points is a major challenge as past models have struggled to fully understand the complex interactions driving them.
Project VERIFY aims to bridge that gap by developing "Digital Twins," highly detailed computer simulations trained on real-world data to test the reliability of early warning signals.
Professor David Thornalley will play a key role in integrating clues from the past that help scientists understand what the Earth's climate was like long ago into these predictive models. His expertise in reconstructing past oceanic and climate conditions will help refine early warning systems for major climate shifts, including those related to the Greenland Ice Sheet and North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, which are both critical components of global climate regulation.
Professor Thornalley said: "Crossing a tipping point in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre would alter UK climate and have severe repercussions for our biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and more.
"In Project VERIFY we will make use of real-world examples of past tipping points to better understand these events and to test how well any early warning systems are performing."
Other UCL researchers across the university are also contributing to this effort, including Professors Chris Brierley (UCL Department of Geography) and Richard Chandler (UCL Department of Statistical Science), who focus on early warning system development, Dr Erica Thompson (UCL Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy (UCL STEaPP)), who specialises in communicating climate risks and impacts, and Professor Serge Guillas (UCL STEaPP), who will use advanced computation and statistical methods to make more effective and efficient use of complex climate models.
Professor Serge Guillas said: "Detecting an upcoming tipping point with high confidence requires novel measurement technologies and strategies, cutting-edge quantification of uncertainties for detailed simulations of the real world, and efficient data stewardship.
"UCL's Advanced Research Computing Centre together with UCL's Departments of Statistical Science and Geography and external partners will investigate and implement new methods and tools to provide innovative solutions to this grand challenge."
The UCL researchers are part of an interdisciplinary team made up of colleagues from seven other leading institutions, co-led by Dr Ruza Ivanovic at the University of Leeds and including researchers from the National Oceanography Centre and the British Antarctic Survey.
Project VERIFY is part of ARIA's £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points programme, which will unite 27 international teams in a collaborative effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.
ARIA's Forecasting Tipping Points programme is Co-led by Programme Directors Dr Gemma Bale and Professor Sarah Bohndiek, both from the University of Cambridge, and looks to create an early warning system capable of equipping society with the information, understanding and time needed to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.
By combining AI, data about the climate from past geological ages, and next-generation observation techniques, Project VERIFY aims to make climate forecasting more accurate, reliable, and actionable than ever before.
