Communities susceptible to damage from wildfires may be able to manage that risk more strategically with a new method developed through University of Alberta research.
Using a combination of remote satellite imagery and a search optimization computer algorithm, the U of A's Wildfire Analytics Team was able to identify the areas of highest priority for removing trees and brush that are considered "optimal fuel" for wildfires.
The study focused on Whitecourt and Hinton, two Alberta towns surrounded by forest.
"Communities have limited budgets for removing hazardous fuels," says team lead Jen Beverly, a professor of wildland fire in the Faculty of Agricultural, Life & Environmental Sciences. "They need to know where to prioritize efforts, and we developed a new way to do that."
The study builds on previously developed assessments of landscape fire exposure in and around both towns, and rated hazardous fuels — trees — by the number of buildings they exposed to wildfire, a measurement called building exposure load.
The resulting model the researchers developed identified areas with the highest proportion of high-hazard trees — those capable of spreading ember fire over long ranges.
"The information would show where to take strategic measures such as clearing brush, helping communities make the most of their wildfire mitigation strategies," Beverly says.
The priority areas identified through the model showed strong alignment with existing community wildfire plans in the two towns, confirming the method's reliability, she adds.
The approach also offers improvements over other fire behaviour models that rely on short-term predictions and are influenced by changing factors such as weather, Beverly notes.
"Our model focuses on identifying where wildfire can enter the built environment, rather than the speed or intensity of the fire, which can help communities develop fuel management plans that don't need constant daily updates."
The method can also be adapted for the diverse fire landscapes around communities and is a "valuable starting point" for those still working to develop their wildfire treatment strategies, Beverly suggests.
"This is a systemic decision-making tool that can provide a community with a clear consensus on where to address or how to frame the risk from wildfire."
For smaller communities facing tighter financial constraints, the method lends itself to phasing in fuel management plans over a few years, and uses free, publicly available satellite imagery, helping reduce costs.
"This gives time and space for the gradual development of local capacity and expertise, which supports community engagement and resilience to future wildfires," she adds.
Using the method, for example, would let residents know if they are living in particularly susceptible neighbourhoods, so they can take steps to help protect their property.
Though more exploration would be needed, the tool also has potential to be used with other methods to improve short-term wildfire planning, such as developing evacuation scenarios, she adds.
