Art Market's Blue-chip Artists Yield Nearly as Much as Top Performing Companies in American

thierry Ehrmann, Artprice's founder/CEO, highlights the art market's excellent performance in H1 2019: "A collector who, at the start of this year, invested in the 100 most successful artists of the last five years (2014-2018), would already be looking at a value accretion of almost a sixth in the value of his/her portfolio."

The Artprice100 (C) index gained +16% over the first half of 2019 while the S&P 500 added +18% over the same period. The similarity in the performances between the American financial markets and a portfolio of works by the world's top performing artists (defined in a purely objective manner) proves the undeniable attractiveness of the Art Market as an alternative investment.

Fewer transactions

The performance of the Artprice100(C) over the first half of 2019 was driven by exceptionally strong demand, barely satisfied by supply. The supply/demand imbalance, generated a rapid increase in value, particularly on works by the 100 top performing artists on the global secondary art market.

The turnover slowdown recorded in H1 2019 by major auction houses, including Sotheby's (-9%) and Christie's (-28%), reflects a less dynamic high-end market than in previous years. However, prices have shown no signs of fatigue and the contraction in the volume of sales is a reminder that the art market is directly dependent on the number of works in circulation.

In a financial context of sustained negative or near-zero refinancing rates, some collectors are probably preferring to hold certain artworks and not cash in on investments that remain highly competitive. Moreover, the persistence of extremely high transaction costs, both in galleries and in auction rooms, is discouraging short holding periods (under five years), and tempting some collectors to consider private transactions as an alternative.

The Artprice100(C) index driven by Warhol, Zao Wou-Ki and Wu Guanzhong

Heavily weighted in our Artprice100(C) index with 9.1% of the portfolio, Pablo Picasso has not contributed to its value accretion for several years. As we have seen over the last four years, his prices contracted -2% in the first half of 2019.

However, Andy Warhol, Fu Baoshi, Zao Wou-Ki and particularly Wu Guanzhong have all clearly enjoyed value accretion, providing the main thrust for the progression of our Artprice100(C) index in H1 2019. Without setting any new auction records, these artists have all enjoyed strong price inflation. The sale of major works by these artists will no doubt confirm the trend.

On 2 June last, a large drawing by Wu Guanzhong entitled Lion grove garden (1988) fetched $20.8 million at China Guardian. It was previously acquired for $17.8 million on 3 June 2011 at Poly Beijing. Adding 17% over the last eight years, the drawing generated, in financial terms, an average annual return of +1.9%. However, another Guanzhong resale suggests that the bulk of the value accretion on his works has occurred in the last 6 months: an important Guanzhong work entitled Two Swallows was purchased for $7.1 million on 3 June 2011 (at the same sale as Lion grove garden) and fetched $7.8 million in December 2018, an increase of just +9.8%.

Paul Cezanne and George Condo

Investments in Modern artists carry the least risk and demand for their work is continuing to grow steadily offering attractive returns over the long term. Claude Monet and Paul Signac have both signed new auction records this year. Similarly, 2019 is already proving to be a superb year (the best since 2000) for Paul Cezanne. His painting Bouilloire et fruits (c. 1888-90), acquired for $29.5 million in 1999, fetched $59.3 million on 13 May 2019 at Christie's New York, generating an average annual ROI of 3.6% over 20 years.

At the other end of the spectrum, Contemporary artists offer striking returns in the medium and short term. The most spectacular entry into the composition of the Artprice100(C) index this year is undoubtedly George Condo. The American artist enjoyed a massive secondary market success in 2018with 78 paintings and 34 drawings selling for more than $63 million, and on three continents (America, Europe and Asia)! The Condo phenomenon has been clearly illustrated by a number of rapid resales of small works including Soft Green Abstraction (1983), which was purchased for $17,000 in April 2017 in Munich and resold a year later in New York for $46,000.

In total, there were seven changes this year in the composition of the Artprice 100(C) index.

In Out

George Condo Huang Binhong

Giorgio Morandi Huang Zhou

Robert Motherwell Anish Kapoor

Jean Paul Riopelle Li Keran

Rufino Tamayo Xu Beihong

Frank Auerbach Pieter Brueghel II

Hans Arp Giorgio de Chirico

Four women... and two Old Masters

Unfortunately, we see no change regarding female artists. This year again, only four of the artists in the Artprice100 are women: Yayoi Kusama (Japan), Joan Mitchell (US), Louise Bourgeois (France) and Barbara Hepworth (UK). Yayoi Kusama now represents 1.3% of the index compared with 0.9% last year. Her price index rose 20% in H1 2019.

The relegation of Pieter Brueghel II for reasons relating to market liquidity has exacerbated the rarity of Old Masters in the index. Numerically, the composition of the index is dominated by Modern artists, numbering 49, followed by Post-War artists (29), Contemporary artists (12), 19th century artists (8) and lastly... Old Masters (only 2).

Composition of Artprice100(C) index for H1 2019

Artist - Share - Period

1. Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) - 9.1% - Modern

2. Andy WARHOL (1928-1987) - 6.4% - Post-War

3. Claude MONET (1840-1926) - 4.5% - 19th Century

4. QI Baishi (1864-1957) - 3.9% - Modern

5. Jean-Michel BASQUIAT (1960-1988) - 3.7% - Contemporary

6. Gerhard RICHTER (b. 1932) - 3.3% - Post-War

7. ZAO Wou-Ki (1921-2013) - 2.9% - Post-War

8. FU Baoshi (1904-1965) - 2.5% - Modern

9. Alberto GIACOMETTI (1901-1966) - 2.4% - Modern

10. Amedeo MODIGLIANI (1884-1920) - 2.2% - Modern

11. Cy TWOMBLY (1928-2011) - 2.2% - Post-War

12. WU Guanzhong (1919-2010) - 2.1% - Modern

13. Roy LICHTENSTEIN (1923-1997) - 2.0% - Post-War

14. Lucio FONTANA (1899-1968) - 1.9% - Modern

15. Alexander CALDER (1898-1976) - 1.8% - Modern

16. Marc CHAGALL (1887-1985) - 1.8% - Modern

17. Joan MIRO (1893-1983) - 1.7% - Modern

18. Willem DE KOONING (1904-1997) - 1.7% - Modern

19. Henri MATISSE (1869-1954) - 1.5% - Modern

20. Fernand LEGER (1881-1955) - 1.4% - Modern

21. Christopher WOOL (b. 1955) 1.4% - Contemporary

22. Yayoi KUSAMA (b. 1929) - 1.3% - Post-War

23. Jean DUBUFFET (1901-1985) - 1.3% - Modern

24. Ren MAGRITTE (1898-1967) - 1.2% - Modern

25. Peter DOIG (b. 1959) - 1.2% - Contemporary

26. Wassily KANDINSKY (1866-1944) - 1.2% - Modern

27. Jeff KOONS (b. 1955) - 1.2% - Contemporary

28. David HOCKNEY (b. 1937) - 1.1% - Post-War

29. Henry MOORE (1898-1986) - 1.0% - Modern

30. LIN Fengmian (1900-1991) - 0.9% - Modern

31. CHU Teh-Chun (1920-2014) - 0.9% - Post-War

32. Paul GAUGUIN (1848-1903) - 0.9% - 19th Century

33. Pierre-Auguste RENOIR (1841-1919) - 0.8% - 19th Century

34. SAN Yu (1895-1966) - 0.8% - Modern

35. Richard PRINCE (b. 1949) - 0.8% - Contemporary

36. Sigmar POLKE (1941-2010) - 0.7% - Post-War

37. Joan MITCHELL (1926-1992) - 0.7% - Post-War

38. PU Ru (1896-1963) - 0.7% - Modern

39. Auguste RODIN (1840-1917) - 0.7% - 19th Century

40. Edgar DEGAS (1834-1917) - 0.7% - 19th Century

41. Paul CEZANNE (1839-1906) - 0.7% - 19th Century

42. Yves KLEIN (1928-1962) - 0.6% - Post-War

43. Camille PISSARRO (1830-1903) - 0.6% - 19th Century

44. Richard DIEBENKORN (1922-1993) - 0.6% - Post-War

45. Ed RUSCHA (b. 1937) - 0.6% - Post-War

46. Keith HARING (1958-1990) - 0.5% - Contemporary

47. Martin KIPPENBERGER (1953-1997) - 0.5% - Contemporary

48. Louise BOURGEOIS (1911-2010) - 0.5% - Modern

49. Alberto BURRI (1915-1995) - 0.5% - Modern

50. Frank STELLA (b. 1936) - 0.5% - Post-War

51. Damien HIRST (b. 1965) - 0.4% - Contemporary

52. Egon SCHIELE (1890-1918) - 0.4% - Modern

53. Ernst Ludwig KIRCHNER (1880-1938) - 0.4% - Modern

54. Georges BRAQUE (1882-1963) - 0.4% - Modern

55. Georg BASELITZ (b. 1938) - 0.4% - Post-War

56. Pierre SOULAGES (b. 1919) - 0.4% - Modern

57. Juan GRIS (1887-1927) - 0.4% - Modern

58. Salvador DALI (1904-1989) - 0.4% - Modern

59. Edvard MUNCH (1863-1944) - 0.4% - Modern

60. Paul SIGNAC (1863-1935) - 0.4% - Modern

61. DONG Qichang (1555-1636) - 0.4% - Old Master

62. Fernando BOTERO (b. 1932) - 0.4% - Post-War

63. WEN Zhengming (1470-1559) - 0.4% - Old Master

64. George CONDO (b. 1957) - 0.4% - Contemporary

65. Sam FRANCIS (1923-1994) - 0.4% - Post-War

66. Alighiero BOETTI (1940-1994) - 0.4% - Post-War

67. Bernard BUFFET (1928-1999) - 0.4% - Post-War

68. Max ERNST (1891-1976) - 0.4% - Modern

69. Robert RAUSCHENBERG (1925-2008) - 0.4% - Post-War

70. CHEN Yifei (1946-2005) - 0.3% - Contemporary

71. Maurice DE VLAMINCK (1876-1958) - 0.3% - Modern

72. Barbara HEPWORTH (1903-1975) - 0.3% - Modern

73. Pierre BONNARD (1867-1947) - 0.3% - Modern

74. Donald JUDD (1928-1994) - 0.3% - Post-War

75. Max BECKMANN (1884-1950) - 0.3% - Modern

76. Tsuguharu FOUJITA (1886-1968) - 0.3% - Modern

77. Alfred SISLEY (1839-1899) - 0.3% - 19th Century

78. Laurence Stephen LOWRY (1887-1976) - 0.3% - Modern

79. Morton Wayne THIEBAUD (b. 1920) - 0.3% - Post-War

80. Nicolas de STAEL (1914-1955) - 0.3% - Modern

81. Enrico CASTELLANI (1930-2017) - 0.3% - Post-War

82. Anselm KIEFER (b. 1945) - 0.3% - Contemporary

83. Michelangelo PISTOLETTO (b. 1933) - 0.3% - Post-War

84. GUAN Liang (1900-1986) - 0.3% - Modern

85. Kees VAN DONGEN (1877-1968) - 0.3% - Modern

86. Francis PICABIA (1879-1953) - 0.3% - Modern

87. Piero MANZONI (1933-1963) - 0.3% - Post-War

88. Tom WESSELMANN (1931-2004) - 0.3% - Post-War

89. Giorgio MORANDI (1890-1964) - 0.3% - Modern

90. Gunther UECKER (b. 1930) - 0.2% - Post-War

91. Josef ALBERS (1888-1976) - 0.2% - Modern

92. Robert MOTHERWELL (1915-1991) - 0.2% - Modern

93. Rufino TAMAYO (1899-1991) - 0.2% - Modern

94. Hans ARP (1886-1966) - 0.2% - Modern

95. Emil NOLDE (1867-1956) - 0.2% - Modern

96. Paul KLEE (1879-1940) - 0.2% - Modern

97. Jean-Paul RIOPELLE (1923-2002) - 0.2% - Post-War

98. Alexej VON JAWLENSKY (1864-1941) - 0.2% - Modern

99. Albert OEHLEN (b. 1954) - 0.2% - Contemporary

100. Frank AUERBACH (b. 1931) - 0.2% - Post-War

Copyright (C)2019 thierry Ehrmann - http://www.artprice.com - http://www.artmarket.com

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