Key points:
- An MLA analysis of ABS data from 2016 to 2021 has identified changes and trends across Australia's cattle herd.
- During the 2016–2021 period, the number of businesses running cattle increased by 2% whereas the number of dairy enterprises has dropped by 23%.
- Declining heifer numbers in dairy herds indicates a structural move away from dairy cattle in Australia.
MLA's Market Information team analysed Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data from 2016 to 2021 to examine how Australia's cattle herd is changing at a state, category and Local Government Area (LGA) level.
Dairy versus meat
Looking at the trends across the dairy and beef industry, significant changes have occurred across the national herd between 2016 to 2021.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, of businesses running cattle has increased 2% – this is an increase wholly from beef businesses.
Over the 2016–2021 period, the number of businesses running meat cattle increased 4% while the number of dairy businesses dropped 23%. This trend could be expected to continue as the number of businesses running dairy heifers fell 27% between the (2016 and 2021), equating to a drop of 83,000 dairy heifers.
Given heifers are the building blocks of a herd, declining heifer numbers indicate a structural move away from dairy cattle in Australia.
In contrast, 5% more enterprises were running beef heifers between 2016 to 2021 as producers rebuilt their herds post-drought. As a result, there were an extra 1,811 businesses running beef cattle in 2021 compared to 2016.
State basis
Total cattle numbers (dairy and beef) rose in all states bar NSW and the NT.
Cattle numbers in Tasmania grew by 20%, WA by 6%, Victoria by 3% and Queensland by 2%. Cattle numbers in SA remained the same.
The number of total cattle in NSW fell 11% or 567,446 head. Cattle numbers in the NT were back 23% or 506,668 head.
The drop in cattle numbers in NSW was driven by a reduction in cattle businesses – down 3% or 514 enterprises.
Local Government Area data
On an LGA basis, Toowoomba saw the greatest increase in absolute cattle numbers – up 51% or 134,284 head.
The other shires that experienced the greatest growth in absolute numbers were:
- Charters Towers (Queensland)
- Livingstone (Queensland)
- Derby-West Kimberley (WA)
- Halls Creek (WA).
There were minimal changes in cattle numbers in Hay (NSW), Adelaide Hills (SA) and the Mornington Peninsula (Victoria) – under 100 head change.
The greatest drop in cattle numbers were experienced in:
- Maranoa (Queensland)
- Central Highlands (Queensland)
- Isaac (Queensland)
- Balonne (Queensland)
- Warrumbungle Shire (NSW).
All these shires experienced drops of over 50,000 head, largely as a result of drier conditions (given Queensland was the last state to emerge from drought).
Northern Tasmanian towns Waratah-Wynyard and La Trobe saw the greatest percentage increase in the number of cattle run – each running more than 10 times the cattle they were in 2016.
In terms of cattle businesses, six shires saw more than 50 net new businesses enter cattle production between 2016 and 2021. These shires were Toowoomba (Queensland), South Burnett (Queensland), Wangaratta (Victoria), Banana (Queensland) and South Gippsland (Victoria).
The five shires experiencing the biggest decline in cattle enterprises were Moira (Victoria), Armidale (NSW), Corangamite (Victoria), Warrumbungle (NSW) and the Snowy Monaro Shire (NSW).
Interestingly in the shires of Corangamite and Armidale, more cattle per enterprise were being run in 2021 – suggesting rationalisation and expansion of existing businesses is more pronounced in these areas.
