The Australia Institute's Chief Economist Greg Jericho has charted exactly where home buyers would be if they'd taken Mr. Hockey at his word.
A decade ago, a home buyer needed a deposit of $154,600 to buy a median-priced house in Sydney.
If someone earning the average full-time male wage had saved 15% of every pay packet in the ten years since, they'd have amassed $126,096.
Not only would that have left them well short of their original target, but the growth in house prices means the deposit they'd need now has almost doubled, to $281,500.
So, a decade after setting out to save $154,600, they'd still be $155,404 short.
The analysis also found that after ten years of saving:
- A Melbourne home buyer would still be $42,059 short of a deposit
- A Brisbane home buyer would still be $58,699 short of a deposit
- An Adelaide home buyer would still be $52,392 short of a deposit
- A Canberra home buyer would still be $62,764 short of a deposit
- A Perth home buyer would still be $19,873 short of a deposit
- A Hobart home buyer would still be $27,683 short of a deposit
- A Darwin home buyer would have saved their deposit in 2024
Apart from those in Darwin, buyers would still face years of saving, and the goalpost would move further away with each property boom.
"A decade ago, Joe Hockey gave Australians bad advice, false hope and poor policy," said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.
"The reality is that for many people with 'a good job that pays good money' the possibility of owning a home is out of reach without help either from a partner who also has a good job or the Bank of Mum and Dad.
"Remember, this data is based on the average full-time male wage. For those earning less, like teachers, nurses and mechanics – or anyone on the average full-time female wage – home ownership is more of an impossible dream than a great Australian dream.
"25 years of the tax system incentivising housing speculation through the 50% capital gains discount combined with negative gearing has left Australia with a housing affordability crisis.
"The 50% discount and negative gearing now cost around $12bn a year with $7.2bn going to the richest 10%.
"The upcoming election needs to have housing affordability front and centre. After 25 years, we need to stop doing what isn't working and start fixing things."
