Summary
- New modelling from Deakin and WWF shows that even a 2°C increase in global warming temperatures could lead to a significant loss of suitable habitat for Purple-crown Fairy-wrens in northern Australia.
- Researchers urge Australia to commit to more ambitious climate targets limiting global warming to 1.5°C to avoid a 'catastrophic tipping point', rather than the current 2°C goal.
- Under the UN Paris Agreement, Australia must submit the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2025, which outlines new emissions reduction commitments.
A new report from Deakin University researchers in collaboration with the World Wide Fund for Nature - Australia (WWF - Australia) outlines the concerning reality facing Australia's wildlife as global temperatures continue to rise.
The report uses analysis by Deakin Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dr Carla Archibald with support from Professor Brett Bryan, both from Deakin's School of Life and Environmental Sciences, in collaboration with Dr Kita Ashman from WWF - Australia and a Deakin alumni.
In a warming climate, flora and fauna come under stress, particularly those that are already threatened like the striking Purple-crowned Fairy-wren.
Beautiful but vulnerable
Weighing in at between nine and 13 grams, the tiny Purple-crowned Fairy-wren is lighter than a 50-cent piece. It can be identified by the distinctive purple circle of crown feather sported by breeding males.
Modelling shows that if the global temperature increases by 2°C, 62% of the river-fringing vegetation in parts of northern Australia that the birds call home will be lost to climate change, threatening their entire existence.
An increase of that magnitude could also mean Queensland's rainforest ringtail possums such as the green ringtail and lemuroid ringtail, found in cool, moist, high-altitude 'cloud forests', would face extinction.
A male and female Purple-crowned Fairy-wren pair. Source: P Barden/Wikimedia Commons.
Challenging climate commitments
While current commitments under the UN Paris Agreement aim to limit global warming to a 2°C increase, this new analysis shows that Australia must commit to more ambitious climate targeting of a 1.5°C increase limit to avoid a 'catastrophic tipping point' for some of our iconic Australian species.
'Modelling shows that fractions of a degree in warming can make an enormous difference to many species. For the species we looked at, stabilising warming to 1.5°C, rather than letting it hit 2°C, would retain more suitable habitat,' says Dr Archibald.
'More habitat means a better chance to persist, especially as species will also face additional threats such as land use change, invasive species and other challenges.'
A way forward
There's an opportunity for Australia to commit to a more ambitious 1.5°C target in the upcoming 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, due in February 2025.
Existing climate science shows that in addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Australia would also need to cease approvals of any new fossil fuels and wind down existing infrastructure earlier than planned to continue a positive trajectory.
While an increase in global average warming at this rate would still have wide-reaching detrimental effects, there would be hope of returning the climate to a stable state by 2100.
It would also mean a brighter outlook for the Purple-crowned Fairy-wrens and the many other furry and feathered friends that call Australia home.
Read the full report and modelling from Deakin University and WWF - Australia: 2°C of warming could wipe out rare Australian bird
The text of this article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) 4.0 International
