New York - Fourteen years of conflict in Syria have undone nearly four decades of economic, social, and human capital progress, according to a new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) preliminary socio-economic impact assessment. The report issues a stark warning: at current growth rates, Syria's economy will not regain its pre-conflict GDP level before 2080. Annual economic growth must rise six-fold to shorten recovery to ten years, and an ambitious ten-fold rise would be needed over 15 years to bring the economy to where it would have been without conflict.
The report, titled "The Impact of the Conflict in Syria: a devastated economy, pervasive poverty and a challenging road ahead to social and economic recovery", estimates that nine out of ten Syrians now live in poverty. The country's GDP has shrunk to less than half of its value since the start of the conflict in 2011, and unemployment has tripled. One in four Syrians are now jobless, and the deterioration of public infrastructure has significantly intensified the conflict's impact.
"Beyond immediate humanitarian aid, Syria's recovery requires long-term investment in development to build economic and social stability for its people," said UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner. "Restoring productivity for jobs and poverty relief, revitalizing agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services such as healthcare, education and energy are key to a self-sustaining future, prosperity, and peace."
The report argues that recovery requires a clear national vision, in-depth reforms, and effective coordination among institutions. It also states that expanding market access is crucial for Syria's economic recovery.
Impacts of the conflict
Building upon findings of a broad array of sources, the report highlights the following impacts:
- GDP loss of US$800 billion is estimated over 14 years of conflict.
- Three out of four people depend on humanitarian aid and need development support in the essential areas of health, education, income poverty, unemployment, food insecurity, water and sanitation, energy, and housing.
- The poverty rate has nearly tripled from 33 percent before the conflict to 90 percent today, while extreme poverty has surged six-fold, from 11 percent to 66 percent.
- The conflict has resulted in nearly 618,000 deaths and 113,000 disappearances. Many lives may have been lost due to the collapse of the health system -as one-third of health centres were damaged and nearly half of ambulance services disabled.
- Between 40-50 percent of children aged 6 to 15 years are not attending school.
- Almost one-third of all housing units were either destroyed or severely damaged during the conflict years, leaving 5.7 million people in Syria in need of shelter support today.
- Over half of water treatment plants and sewer systems are damaged or non-operational, leaving nearly 14 million people - half the population - without clean water, sanitation, and hygiene.
- Energy production has fallen by 80 percent, with over 70 percent of power plants and transmission lines damaged, reducing the national grid's capacity by more than three-quarters.
Syria's Human Development Index (HDI)-UNDP's established summary measure of development combining health, education and income indicators-has declined from 0.661 in 2010 to 0.557. This is lower than the first HDI for Syria recorded in 1990, which stood at 0.563.
A Roadmap for Syria's Economic Renewal
Syria's economic recovery must achieve sustained high growth to provide livelihoods and opportunities for all. At the current 1.3 percent annual growth rate (2018-2024), Syria's economy would take 55 years to restore pre-conflict GDP levels. Achieving recovery in 15 years requires 5 percent annual growth, while catching up to a no-conflict scenario demands 13.9 percent annual growth.
"Syria's future hinges on a robust development recovery approach," said Abdallah Al Dardari, UNDP Assistant Administrator and Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States. "This demands a comprehensive strategy addressing governance reform, economic stabilisation, sector revitalisation, infrastructure rebuilding, and strengthened social services. By implementing these interconnected reforms, we can help Syria regain control over its future, reduce reliance on external aid, and pave the way for a resilient and prosperous future for all in Syria."
This UNDP assessment is part of a series of assessments and analyses that are currently being prepared by the UN Country Team in Syria to inform early recovery and reconstruction efforts.
For more details, please review the report available through this link: https://go.undp.org/3we
