Today, Environment and Climate Change Canada presented its seasonal outlook for winter 2024-2025. Experts predict close to or above normal temperatures across the north and east. In the west, a warm start to the season is expected to be followed by normal to below normal temperatures.
This year we are shifting into a La Niña winter, which often brings distinct weather conditions to Canada. La Niña happens when stronger-than-normal trade winds push warm surface water westward in the Pacific, allowing cooler, deeper water to rise near the South American coast. This results in cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
The cooling effect of La Niña in Canada can cause:
- Below-seasonal temperatures
- A more active storm track over the Great Lakes and Atlantic provinces, leading to increased snowfall
- Drier atmosphere in the southern parts of Canada, due to reduced moisture flow
As winters trend warmer due to climate change, this year's La Niña is expected to be weaker and less pronounced. However, the cooling effect of La Niña will still be felt in western and northwestern Canada where it is reinforced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation-a long-term fluctuation in Pacific Ocean temperatures that strengthens La Niña's cooling impact.
Canada is warming at roughly double the global rate, and even more in the north, which leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Starting this winter, Environment and Climate Change Canada will be able to use its Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system to analyze the connection between human-caused climate change and the odds of extreme cold temperature events. Work is also underway to develop the system to analyze extreme precipitation. This capability is expected to come online in 2025.
As the Government continues to tackle the climate crisis, it is critical that we understand and reduce the risks and adapt to those changes. This is why the Government of Canada has developed a robust National Adaptation Strategy, a whole-of-society vision to reduce the risk of climate-related disasters, improve health outcomes, protect nature and biodiversity, build and maintain resilient infrastructure, and support a strong economy and its workers.
