Global warming is a reality we all must navigate. Knowing how much temperatures are expected to increase is vital to effective planning when it comes to reducing emissions and adapting to our changing climate.
Today, the Government of Canada published its first publicly available annual global mean temperature forecast, predicting that 2025 will be warmer than every year on record prior to 2023.
The forecast anticipates a global mean temperature in the range of 1.35 °C to 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial value, meaning global temperatures in 2025 will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 12th consecutive year. The forecast reaffirms that the significant increase in global temperatures over the past two years is not a temporary fluctuation, but a clear signal of the long-term global warming that is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Looking ahead, Canada's climate model predicts the next five years will be the warmest five-year period on record.
The annual global mean temperature forecast is produced by the Government of Canada using the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction System version 3. This system is designed to forecast seasonal climate conditions up to a year in advance. Results are currently updated monthly at weather.gc.ca to provide valuable insights into temperature, precipitation, and other key climate variables. Starting later in 2025, the Government of Canada will also begin publishing seasonal and decadal forecasts on ClimateData.ca.
Canada's first annual global mean temperature forecast marks a significant milestone in the Government's ability to provide important climate insights on a global scale, building on extensive expertise in climate modelling and analysis. This work supports planning in areas such as agriculture, disaster preparedness, water management, and climate adaptation.
The Government of Canada's seasonal to decadal forecasts help fill the gap between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections, providing governments, researchers, and communities world-wide with vital data to better understand and prepare for the growing impacts of climate change. This data also underscores the urgent need to transition to a greener, more prosperous, low-carbon economy both in Canada and abroad.
