Flash floods are among the deadliest natural hazards in Central Asia, emphasizing the need for robust flash flood guidance as a core component of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) products and services.
By analyzing weather data, hydrological models, and leveraging forecaster expertise, the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) delivers critical information to help emergency services, governments, and individuals prepare for and respond to flash floods. It also aims to enhance coordination between NMHSs and National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMAs).
On 6-7 November 2024, Uzhydromet, in collaboration with WMO, hosted the Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) and Pakistan-Afghanistan Flash Flood Guidance System (PARFFGS) Steering Committee Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
The meeting aimed to engage NMHSs and NDMAs in strategic discussions to shape the long-term development and sustainability of the newly established Regional Specialized Hydrological Flash Flood Forecasting Centre.
Key focus areas included:
- Regional Priorities and upscaling of the flash flood forecasting operations: Improving the infrastructure to comply with WMO Information System 2.0 (WIS 2.0).
- WIS 2.0. infrastructure to facilitate seamless data flows and integration to forecaster operations.
- Transitioning the FFGS to a WIPPS Regional Specialized Flash Flood Forecasting Centres Regional Centers.
- Improving the coordination through empowering the Steering Committee Members (SCM) to address regional issues, technical challenges and assess the technical competencies of the project proposals for the region.
- Sustainability Phase of FFGS/WGC Phase IV: Reviewing the progress of the sustainability phase, with an emphasis on decision-making and program development to ensure long-term viability.
- Strengthening Tools and Strategies: Evaluating Analysis of FFGS needs, training plans, marketing strategies, and research-to-operations initiatives within the regional context.
- Hands-on Simulation Exercizes: Conducting thematic and regional breakout sessions to enhance practical understanding and foster collaboration among NMHSs, NDMAs, and other stakeholders.
The meeting had several significant highlights and outcomes:
- Countries highlighted the importance of capacity building, verification processes, and enhanced regional cooperation and data sharing.
- Members emphasized linking operations and data processes of CARFFGS and PARFFGS to support transboundary basins and address shared weather challenges during the flood season.
- Kazakhstan expressed interest in becoming the WMO Regional Specialized Hydrological Centre for Flash Flood Forecasting.
- Benefitting WIS 2.0 for more refined data operations and seamless integration
The Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) project is a critical milestone in FFGS with Global Coverage.
- In 2017, the initial financing for developing the regional system was provided by the United States Agency for International Development/Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA). The system was established by the Hydrological Research Center (HRC) in San Diego, facilitating critical hydrological and meteorological data modelling to support decision-making.
- 2021, The World Bank continued investment through the Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project, leading to the development of the Central Asia Flood Early Warning System. This initiative focused on Riverine Flood Forecasting and Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins, with HRC serving as the system developer and modeller.
- 2019-2023, the CREWS Afghanistan project built upon the Regional FFGS implementation, with HRC playing a key role in system development, modelling, and integration. The project introduced an Afghanistan-specific domain with enhanced capabilities, including Landslide Susceptibility Mapping, sub-seasonal to seasonal ensemble prediction capacities, and the integration of additional hydrometeorological data. HRC further contributed by developing forecasting tools that combined data from Pakistan's WRF and ICON models, enabling more timely and accurate flash flood forecasting and warnings.
