The climate crisis will profoundly change the map of energy demand in Catalonia in the coming decades. According to the doctoral thesis defended at the University of Barcelona, Les necessitats de climatització a Catalunya per l'efecte del canvi climàtic, the increase in temperatures associated with climate change will cause a general increase in cooling needs throughout the country, especially in coastal and urban areas, while heating needs will decrease progressively, more markedly in mountain and inland regions. This uneven development poses a major challenge for energy transition, urban design and territorial management.The thesis, written by Xavier Balagué and supervised by Emeritus Professor Javier Martín Vide and Professor Joan Albert López Bustins, from the Department of Geography at the University of Barcelona's Faculty of Geography and History, and linked to the activity of the Climate Change and Landscape Ecology research group, provides an innovative approach to study the impact of climate change on energy needs at the local level.
A climatic geography of air conditioning
The thesis is based on a detailed analysis of current and future air conditioning needs in Catalonia (both heating and cooling), using the degree-day variable as a key indicator. This methodology makes it possible to convert daily temperatures into specific energy data, suitable for territorial analysis. Using a statistical multiple regression model combined with spatial interpolation, Balagué has regionalized these needs at the municipal scale, both for the observed period and for future scenarios, according to different emission trajectories (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), climate scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways, which combine hypotheses of economic development and greenhouse gases emissions: SSP1 2.6 is an optimistic scenario with low emissions, SSP2 4.5 is a medium scenario, and SSP5 8.5 is a highest emission scenario.
The study combines real data from more than 100 weather stations of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia with global climate models to simulate the evolution of energy demand up to the year 2100. The key geographical variables to understand this evolution are altitude, latitude, slope and distance to the sea.
Forecast: more heat, less cold
The results show a clear trend: in all scenarios, cooling needs (CCDs, cooling degree-days, an index that measures the energy demand for cooling spaces) will increase significantly over the century, while heating needs (HDDs, heating degree days, an index measuring the energy demand for space heating) will experience a gradual reduction. In the most pessimistic scenarios (SSP5 8.5), the coast and Terres de Ponent could triple their current cooling needs before the end of the century. The Pyrenees, on the other hand, will remain an area with high heating needs, although they will also decrease.
