As environmental, technological, and societal change join forces to disrupt human and planetary health, the world must get better at tracking and responding to a host of emerging challenges, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Science Council (ISC).
The report titled, Navigating New Horizons - A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing, identifies eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.
IIASA Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group Leader, Nadejda Komendantova, and Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, member of the IIASA Science Advice and Review Board, were invited as experts to join the UNEP Foresight Expert Panel established in cooperation with the ISC, to aid in processes to identify and evaluate emerging issues and signals of change, and to guide and oversee this critical work. The panel was part of a group of global experts who identified eighteen accompanying signals of change through regional and stakeholder consultations that included youth, offering a deeper glimpse into potential disruptions, both positive and negative, that the world must prepare for.
"We are living in times of change when several transition and transformation processes as well as existing and emerging risks are influencing the future planetary development while creating uncertainties and threats, but also opportunities. The new report is based on foresight analysis, which is one of the tools of participatory governance. As authors, we hope to bring attention to the signals of change that will influence the wellbeing of our planet in both the near and long-term future," noted Komendantova.
The shifts identified in the report include humanity's degradation of the natural world, the rapid development of technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), competition for natural resources, widening inequalities, and declining trust in institutions. These shifts are creating a polycrisis, in which global crises are amplifying, accelerating, and synchronizing - with huge implications for human and planetary wellbeing.
"As the impacts of multiple crises intensify, now is the time to get ahead of the curve and protect ourselves from emerging challenges," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. "The rapid rate of change, uncertainty, and technological developments we're seeing, against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, means any country can be thrown off course more easily and more often. By monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach outlined in this report - including looking outside the traditional environmental space - the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption."
Signals of change
Key shifts and signals of change outlined in the report include:
The demand for critical rare earth elements, minerals and metals to fuel the transition to net-zero is expected to increase fourfold by 2040, increasing calls for deep sea mining and even space mining. This poses potential threats to nature and biodiversity, could increase pollution and waste, and spark more conflicts.
As permafrost thaws on a warming planet, ancient organisms that may be pathogenic could be released, resulting in major environmental, animal and human impacts. This phenomenon has already led to an outbreak of anthrax in Siberia.
While AI and digital transformation can bring benefits, there are environmental implications - such as increased demand for critical minerals and rare earth elements and water resources to meet data centre demands. The use of AI in weapons systems and military applications, and the development of synthetic biology, need careful review through an environmental lens.
Armed conflict and violence are rising and evolving. These conflicts result in ecosystem degradation and pollution, leading to repercussions for vulnerable populations.
Forced displacement is increasing human health and environmental impacts. One in every 69 people is now forcibly displaced - nearly double the figures from a decade ago. Conflict and climate change are key drivers.
Adopting foresight
However, the report finds that using foresight tools can help the world to anticipate and prepare for the next emerging challenges and future disruptions.
"Foresight provides a useful set of tools to step outside of short-termism to help identify future opportunities and risks provided that it is done in a truly pluralistic manner, transcending narrow institutional mandates, sectors, and other artificial divides that constrain our framing of the problems and the solutions," explained ISC President Peter Gluckman.
The report recommends adopting a new social contract that engages a diverse range of stakeholders, including indigenous people; giving young people a stronger voice; and rethinking measures of progress to go beyond GDP.
Governments and societies can also introduce shorter term targets and indicators that allow them to be more agile in governance. Ushering in tools and actions to reconfigure financial systems and reroute capital flows - a positive signal of change in the report - could help to reduce inequalities, eradicate extreme poverty and address environmental crises.
Supporting agile and adaptive governance would require better monitoring and assessment of interventions. This includes integrating and improving monitoring on environmental change, and making data and knowledge more accessible.
Just as the impacts of multiple crises are amplifying harm to environmental and human health, the solutions are in sight and actions are underway that would address the global shifts and signals of change identified in the report. Foresight can help to accelerate these actions and spark many more.
Adapted from a press release by UNEP and the ISC. Read the original text here.
