A new paper from the University of California San Diego details how China faces numerous political, economic and technological obstacles as it tries to transition away from coal—the country's primary energy source—while balancing the need to combat climate change with the need for energy security.
Despite its commitment to "phase down" coal, China recently has been permitting and constructing coal plants at rates not seen in a decade.
"There is an increased focus on energy security in China—in 2021, the country experienced its worst power outages in decades, affecting 20 provinces," said the paper's author, Michael Davidson, an assistant professor with a joint appointment with UC San Diego's Jacobs School of Engineering and School of Global Policy and Strategy. "While China was able to decrease the coal mining workforce by over 2 million people in the last decade, without major socio-economic repercussions, the next two million are going to be a lot more difficult to cut."
The study makes several policy recommendations, including enhancing market reforms, ensuring stable investment in renewable energy and building in sufficient support for communities, workers and firms.
"The future of coal in China will depend on striking a balance between economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability," Davidson said. "The findings of this study provide a roadmap for policymakers and researchers looking to navigate this complex transition."
Published recently in WIREs, the review paper evaluates, synthesizes and summarizes previously published research on China's dependance.
It emphasizes that the road to phasing down coal in China is complex, requiring collaboration between central and local governments, state-owned and private enterprises, and international partners.
China consumes over half of the world's coal and contributes more than 20% of global CO2 emissions from coal combustion.
The country has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 which would require a dramatic reduction of coal in its energy mix.
However, the study finds coal still has a stronghold over China—it still generates substantial employment and the country is home to reserves of 140 billion tons of coal, making coal an essential element in the country's political economy and energy security.
"China's success in reducing its reliance on coal will be key to shaping the country's future," Davidson said.
Coal consumption is not only a major driver of global CO2 emissions but also a significant contributor to China's air pollution crisis, which is responsible for an estimated 1.1 million deaths annually, he adds.
"It is important that workers and communities in legacy industries like coal aren't left behind in the transition away from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources," Davidson said. "There are few successful international examples for the scale of China's transition, but increased international collaboration and lesson sharing will be important as many countries attempt to phase-down coal over the coming decades."
Read the full study, "Managing the decline of coal in a decarbonizing China."
