Climate Change Fuels Longer, Severe Megadroughts

Severe droughts are becoming hotter, longer, and increasingly devastating to ecosystems as climate change accelerates, according to a new study, which reports that temperate grasslands, including in parts of the United States, are facing the worst effects. The findings provide a global quantitative understanding of multiyear droughts (MYDs) – prolonged events lasting years or decades – and offer a benchmark for understanding their global trends and impacts. As droughts become more frequent worldwide, the likelihood of MYDs rises, posing severe threats to both natural ecosystems and human systems. These events deplete soil moisture and reduce streamflow, potentially causing irreversible damage, with consequences that include widespread crop failures, increased tree mortality, diminished ecosystem productivity, and reduced water supplies. Recent MYDs, like the Western U.S. drought (2000–2018) and Chile's ongoing drought (since 2010), have drawn significant concern due to their devastating impacts. However, less prominent MYDs, with fewer perceived consequences, may have gone unnoticed, highlighting the need for comprehensive knowledge of their occurrence and effects. To address this need, Liangzhi Chen and colleagues mapped the global distribution of 13,176 MYDs from 1980 to 2018 using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which measures drought severity based on the balance between precipitation and potential evaporative demand. Chen et al. also assessed these events' impacts on vegetation through remotely sensed greenness data. The findings show that over the last 40 years, MYDs have occurred on nearly every continent and have become increasingly widespread, hotter, and drier, with global land affected by these events increasing by 49,279 ±14,771 square kilometers annually. What's more, the authors report that the ecosystem impacts of MYDs varied significantly, with temperate grasslands exhibiting greater declines in greenness compared to subtropical and tropical forests. While grasslands demonstrated low resistance to drought, they often displayed rapid recovery following drought events, highlighting their unique resilience dynamics. In a related Perspective, David Hoover and William Smith discuss the study and its findings in greater detail.