The research uses advanced climate models and wildfire models to simulate the impact of climate change on wildfires. 'We found that there is more area being burnt in many regions due to climate change,' said Seppe Lampe, climate scientist at the VUB and one of the two lead authors of the study. 'Although human activities such as landscape changes and population growth generally reduce the area burnt, the effect of climate change continues to grow.'
However, the study's findings point to large regional differences. In Africa, where up to 70% of the global burnt area is located, a marked decline in wildfires is observed, particularly in savannahs. 'This is mainly due to the increase in human activity in the region and changes in land use. For example, we see that in some regions the landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, making it harder for fires to spread. In these areas, direct human interventions in the landscape dominate for now over increasing risks due to climate change. On the other hand, in forested areas such as California and Siberia, the amount of burnt area is actually increasing, which is linked to longer periods of drought and higher temperatures due to climate change. Especially in regions like Western Siberia and North America, we see a sharp increase. These regions have been in the news frequently in recent years because of extreme fires, and our models confirm that this trend bears the mark of climate change,' said Dr. Chantelle Burton, fire expert at the UK Met Office and one of the study's two lead authors.
The team used models that take into account various factors such as climate, vegetation, and population density. The researchers stress that while human activities such as fire suppression and landscape management can have a dampening effect, this is often not enough to fully counteract the impact of climate change, especially in years with extreme weather.
'What is striking is that in periods with low to moderate numbers fire activity, direct human interventions have a large effect. However, in periods with high fire activity, the effect of climate change dominates, meaning that in these cases we lose control,' Lampe added.
The researchers also warn for the future. 'The rate at which the impact of climate change on wildfires is increasing every year,' said Professor Wim Thiery, climate scientist at the VUB and co-author of the study. The results suggest that if the current trend continues, the area burnt due to climate change will increase significantly in the coming decades. 'The study comes at a crucial time as we witness increasingly destructive fire seasons worldwide. It is essential that we not only adapt our policies to better manage fires, but also address underlying causes of climate change,' the research team concludes.
The article was published as:
Burton*, C., Lampe*, S., Kelley, D.I., Thiery, W., Hantson, S., Christidis, N., Gudmundsson, L., Forrest, M., Burke, E., Chang, J., Huang, H., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Lasslop, G., Li, W., Nieradzik, L., Li, F., Chen, Y., Randerson, J., Reyer, C.P.O., Mengel, M., Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w .
*Chantelle Burton and Seppe Lampe contributed equally to this study.
