Climate Change Threatens African Cocoa Output

Researcher Paulina Asante from Ghana and her colleagues used a computer model to simulate the impact of climate change by 2060 in four countries: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. In Ivory Coast, up to 50% of the current cocoa-growing areas could be lost, significantly reducing production. Ghana is expected to see a moderate decline in suitable areas, while Nigeria and Cameroon may experience an increase in arable land for cocoa. Cameroon's production could rise by 60%, and Nigeria's by approximately 40%.

Risk of increased deforestation

These shifts may push cocoa farming into previously untouched areas, increasing the risk of deforestation, explains WUR researcher Niels Anten. "Cameroon has a relatively large amount of rainforest, and cocoa is often grown in areas that were originally tropical forests. This puts significant pressure on these ecosystems."

"Addressing the impact of climate change on cocoa requires an all-hands-on-deck approach. It affects every stage of the supply chain: farmers face reduced yields, businesses encounter rising costs, and consumers see higher prices", says Paulina Asante. "While collaboration can be challenging, it is crucial to help current production regions adapt and maintain production on existing plantations. This will prevent cocoa-related deforestation elsewhere and ensure that deforestation-free policies, like the EU law EUDR (see box), deliver meaningful outcomes."

Uncertain factors in projections

The models used by the researchers combine current knowledge of cocoa physiology with projected climate changes in West and Central Africa. However, there are still many unknowns. One is the effect of rising CO₂ levels in the atmosphere. Since CO₂ enhances photosynthesis, it could mitigate some of the negative effects of drought and heat. The extent of this impact remains uncertain. Additionally, researchers are still exploring how flowering and fruiting will respond to warming, as well as how pests and diseases may evolve. Further research is urgently needed - not just for cocoa but for all crops - to better prepare agriculture for the future.

Major consequences for farmers

For many farmers in West Africa, who already face low incomes and limited access to resources, climate change could have profound consequences. To offset the negative effects, it is crucial to increase yields per hectare. There is significant potential for improvement, as the current production levels are far below their potential. Better soil management and targeted fertilization could help bridge this gap. Agroforestry, where cocoa trees are grown alongside other trees, also holds promise. Shade trees can lower temperatures, stabilize humidity, and provide additional products, diversifying farmers' incomes. "Choosing the right shade trees is essential. Some trees use too much water, exacerbating drought issues. It is crucial to select species suited to the local climate and soil conditions," says Danaë Rozendaal, another researcher on the team. Developing heat- and drought-resistant cocoa varieties and providing training for farmers can also help maintain or even boost production.

The research involved collaboration between WUR groups Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Plant Production Systems Group, and Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group, along with cocoa companies, international and national research institutions, NGOs (non-governmental organisations), and local governments as part of the Norwegian government-funded CocoaSoils program.

Chocolate prices

The effects of climate change on cocoa production are already noticeable. Cocoa trees, which typically have a lifespan of 20 to 30 years, are struggling with higher temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This has previously led to crop failures in Ivory Coast. Consumers feel the impact through higher chocolate prices. Some manufacturers are responding by incorporating alternatives, such as cookie pieces, into chocolate bars to reduce cocoa use. "I don't think cocoa will become so scarce that chocolate letters will only be visible under a microscope in the future," Anten jokes, "but the sector must adapt to the changing climate."

The research on the impact of climate change on cocoa production in West and Central Africa is ongoing. Current studies are examining the extent to which West Africa can meet growing cocoa demand while adhering to the EUDR regulations.