Sea level rise could affect nearly 20 million people by 2100 and permanently displace them. In the Mediterranean, one of the regions of the world that is most prone to flooding and most exposed to environmental degradation and climate change hazards such as extreme rainfall, heat waves, etc., one third of the population lives near the sea. Shortly after catastrophic floods devastated regions in the Valencian Community and Castilla-La Mancha, the dangers of anthropogenic climate change in this area are becoming increasingly clear. Addressing the challenges of the Mediterranean coastline and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires continuous innovation and effort, as well as collaboration between scientists, policymakers, stakeholders and communities.
This is one of the main conclusions of the special report on coastal risks in the Mediterranean region that was presented today, 18 November, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The study, presented by the Mediterranean Environment and Climate Change Expert Group (MedECC) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), has highlighted the growing concern of the scientific community about the impacts of climate change on the coastal areas of the Mediterranean region.
Maria del Carme Llasat, professor at the Department of Applied Physics, director of the Group for the Analysis of Adverse Meteorological Situations (GAMA) and member of the Institute for Water Research (IdRA) and the Institute for Research in Complex Systems (UBICS) of the University of Barcelona, coordinated the analysis, in collaboration with Piero Lionello, from the University of Salento in Italy, and Salpie Djoundourian, from the Lebanese American University in Lebanon.
Lionello and Grammenos Mastrojeni, UfM's senior deputy secretary general for energy and climate action, warned of the urgent need for more efficient adaptation and mitigation measures in the region. "The Mediterranean Sea is a source of immense pride for the 22 countries that border its shores, an inextricable part of their identity and heritage", said Mastrojeni. "But it is time to accept that the Mediterranean as we know it may not last much longer if our efforts to counter climate change continue to be lacking. Given its importance, supporting the green transition has always been one of the priorities of the Union for the Mediterranean", he concluded.
The Mediterranean: current and future dangers
After the first Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1) - the first region-wide report on climate change and environmental degradation - the latest studies by the team of experts warn of current and projected dangers, while presenting actions to minimize their effects. The region's average temperature has already risen by more than 1.5°C compared to the industrial period; it is expected to rise by a further 2.3°C to 3.6°C by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios, and could exceed 5.5°C by the end of the century. This rise is particularly high in summer, with maximum temperatures that can reach more than 7°C above those typical at the beginning of the last century, leading to, among other things, severe health impacts.
The Mediterranean region also faces notable peaks in water demand, a phenomenon that is expected to intensify in the coming years due to climate change, agricultural practices, and increased population and tourism in coastal areas. It is estimated that sea level rise - which could be close to one metre compared to its 20th century level - coupled with water scarcity and high temperatures, could result in the displacement of more than 20 million people.
