Full implementation of the landmark energy goals established at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai last year would drive down greenhouse gas emissions and significantly accelerate the transformation of the global energy sector, according to a new IEA report that can serve as a guidebook for turning countries' collective pledges into action.
At COP28, nearly 200 countries agreed to work towards an ambitious set of global energy objectives as part of the outcome known as the UAE Consensus - pledging to achieve net zero emissions from the global energy sector by 2050, transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and accelerate the deployment of other low-emissions technologies. The new IEA report, From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to implement the COP28 energy goals, is the first comprehensive global analysis of what putting the targets into practice would achieve - and how it can be done.
The report highlights the feasibility of achieving the tripling and doubling goals, in particular - though it stresses that this will hinge on additional international efforts to set the right enabling conditions, as well as on countries using the UAE Consensus as the compass for their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
"The goals set by nearly 200 countries at COP28 can be transformative for the global energy sector, putting it on a fast track towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable future. To ensure the world doesn't miss this huge opportunity, the focus must shift rapidly to implementation," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "As this new IEA report shows, the COP28 energy goals should lay the foundation for countries' new climate targets under the Paris Agreement - they are the North Star for what the energy sector needs to do. And further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage and faster electrification, which are integral to move clean energy transitions quickly and securely."
According to the report, the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is within reach thanks to favourable economics, ample manufacturing potential and strong policies. But greater capacity does not automatically mean that more renewable electricity will clean up the world's power systems, lower costs for consumers and slash fossil fuel use.
To unlock the full benefits of the tripling goal, countries need to make a concerted push to build and modernise 25 million kilometres of electricity grids by 2030, according to the report. The world would also need 1 500 gigawatts (GW) of energy storage capacity by 2030, of which 1 200 GW needs to come from battery storage, a 15-fold increase on today's level.
The report emphasises the need for a more granular, country-specific approach to achieving the critical goal of doubling energy efficiency by 2030. Doing so would potentially cut global energy costs by almost 10%, reduce emissions by 6.5 billion tonnes, and strengthen countries' energy security.
Yet getting there requires that governments around the world make energy efficiency a much greater policy priority and focus relentlessly on key actions. For advanced economies, this means homing in on electrification, given that doubling efficiency requires pushing electricity's share of global energy consumption towards 30% by 2030. The report notes that electric vehicles and heat pumps are significantly more efficient than their traditional alternatives. Meanwhile, for emerging economies, stronger efficiency standards - particularly for cooling equipment such as air conditioners - are vital for faster progress. And for countries without full access to modern forms of energy, achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of universal access to clean cooking supplies significantly reduces energy demand, transforms lives and livelihoods, and prevents millions of early deaths.
The report finds that fully achieving the COP28 goals for renewables and efficiency would cut global emissions by 10 billion tonnes by 2030 compared with what is otherwise expected, helping to give the world a fighting chance of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. It also sets out key energy sector benchmarks for countries to consider as they design supportive new NDCs, which are due in 2025.
The report was released during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, which coincides with Climate Week NYC. Over the course of the week, leaders from across government, industry and civil society are gathering to discuss opportunities for greater action on energy, climate and sustainable development issues. Alongside these events, the IEA is hosting the third in its current series of High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues in collaboration with the COP29 Presidency. The dialogue with global decision makers in New York City will focus on the findings of this report and next steps.
In addition to the release of the COP28 report, the IEA also updated its Climate Pledges Explorer. The interactive online tool provides granular information on medium- and long-term climate plans for more than 190 countries, including estimates for implied emissions reductions within the energy sector. It also features a list of all net zero pledges globally, including their legal status and target year.
