SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS from the Climate Council out today (March 20) reveals three ways that climate change made Tropical Cyclone Alfred more damaging and more costly.
- More intense winds fuelled by record breaking hot ocean temperatures. The winds brought down power lines and damaged roofs, prompting a record 3,676 calls to Queensland SES and cut power to half a million homes and businesses.
- More destructive waves driven by higher seas and gale force winds. Relentless powerful waves, like the record-breaking 12.3 metre swell was recorded on the Gold Coast, gouged sand off beaches across about 500km of coastline.
- More significant rainfall due to the slow moving nature of the cyclone and warmer atmosphere and oceans. Brisbane recorded its wettest day in 50 years, with 275mm recorded overnight to March 10, while Hervey Bay experienced its heaviest daily downpour in 70 years, with more than 100mm in a single hour, and Nambour experienced its heaviest March rainfall in over a century.
The analysis shows that populated parts of Southeast Queensland and Northern NSW will be more vulnerable to cyclone damage in the future as those three factors get worse due to climate pollution.
Tropical cyclone movement is extremely difficult to predict, however this report finds that climate change may allow:
- Future, slow moving cyclones to linger longer over vulnerable communities and cause more damage; and
- Cyclones to track further south and intensify closer to the coast, impacting heavily populated areas.
Scientists warn that, in the future, the areas currently inundated by Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also face even more extreme rainfall events. For every degree of global warming, Australians will experience 7-28% more rain for hourly events, and 2-15% more for longer duration events. This amount of rainfall is significantly higher than the 5% typically accounted for in Australia's flood planning standards.
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said: "Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit many communities battered by repeat disasters in recent years. In Queensland, every local government area that faced a disaster warning for Alfred also experienced flooding in 2022, and communities in New South Wales like Clarence Valley, Mid-Coast and Port Macquarie-Hastings have experienced a series of floods, fires and storms since 2019. It's devastating that these communities are being forced to clean up the mess of climate pollution again and again and again.
"This report is a stark warning: Climate change is driving more damaging tropical cyclones that can travel further south into some of our most heavily populated regions.
"Clinging to polluting fuels through new coal and gas projects, or risky policies like nuclear that delay the switch to renewable power backed by storage, will make future disasters more harmful and endanger our children's lives even further."
Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly said: "Four million Australians along the east coast were in the firing line of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. The devastation of this event was fuelled by climate pollution with record high ocean temperatures in the Coral Sea, powerful wind-driven waves riding on higher seas, intense rainfall and gale force winds.
"As this report explains, climate pollution from coal, oil and gas, means the world's oceans are absorbing vast amounts of excess heat, with devastating consequences that are now unfolding. Today, we are putting more than 10 zeta joules of extra heat energy into the ocean each year - the equivalent energy of five Hiroshima bomb explosions every second."
Climate Councillor and economist Nicki Hutley said: "Tropical Cyclone Alfred pounded the beaches, homes and businesses of Queensland and New South Wales and now it's crashing into the Federal Budget. The Treasury has estimated a $1.2 billion dollar hit on the Budget and a threat to inflation. A decade of climate inaction is costing all of us dearly, with massive clean up bills and over 63,000 insurance claims currently lodged in the wake of tropical cyclone Alfred.
"We know the average cost to Australian households of extreme weather in 2022 was $1,532 , with higher taxes, rising insurance, more uninsured damage and higher prices paid due to supply chain disruptions all factored in. This figure is expected to rise to more than $2,500 per household by 2050.
"We all pay for climate pollution, with every major disaster sending our cost of living through the roof. Australians are paying $30 billion more today on insurance than they were only 10 years ago."
