Digital Media: Growing Threat to Democracy?

New replication study examines the influence of digital media on democracy

To the point

• A new replication study reviews and confirms previous research findings on the influence of digital media on democracy.
• Digital media such as social media, messenger groups or comment columns in online media have a predominantly negative influence on political processes. They can encourage populist movements, increase polarization and undermine trust in institutions.
• Need for action: Strategies are needed to minimize the risks of digital media and at the same time strengthen their democratic potential.

Digital media are increasingly shaping the political landscape worldwide. A new replication study takes a closer look at earlier research on the influence of digital media on democracy and confirms worrying developments. Although digital media offer opportunities for political participation and access to information, they also contribute to polarization, declining trust in institutions, and the spread of misinformation.

A recent research paper by the Institute for Replication (I4R) analyzes and reviews the results of the 2023 study, 'A Systematic Review of Worldwide Causal and Correlational Evidence on Digital Media and Democracy,' by Lorenz-Spreen et al. The replication study, conducted by researchers from Tongji University, the University of Cambridge, and Duke University, confirms the original findings on the relationships between digital media and democracy.

Growing mistrust in democratic institutions

The research team systematically replicated the methodology of the original study and used an updated dataset with studies up to March 2024. The results confirm the findings of the original study: Digital media have many problematic effects on democratic processes, in addition to positive ones. On the one hand, they promote political participation and facilitate access to information. On the other hand, they increase polarization, mistrust in institutions, and populist movements.

"The replication study supports our findings, and the worrying trends continue," explains Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, research group leader for Computational Social Science at TU Dresden and research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development (MPIB) in Berlin. He and Lisa Oswald - both working at the Center for Adaptive Rationality - led the 2023 study. Postdoctoral researcher Lisa Oswald underscores the significance of these findings. "The correlative evidence is mounting that digital media can negatively influence political processes - we see increased polarization, rising mistrust in democratic institutions and media, and a proliferation of misinformation."

Increased political participation

Co-author Ralph Hertwig, Director of the Center for Adaptive Rationality at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, also sees a need for action: "We have enough converging evidence to take these challenges seriously and develop strategies that minimize the risks while also protecting and making use of the potential of digital media to foster democratic processes."

The replication confirms the key findings of the original study. Digital media are associated with a variety of democracy-relevant variables. The majority of the findings point to potential dangers for democracy - for example, the emotional devaluation of those who think differently (affective polarization), the rise of populist movements, increasing fragmentation of social discourse, and a decline in trust in democratic institutions, as well as hate speech and the spread of misinformation.

At the same time, however, there are also positive observations: People who use digital media participate more often in politics, have access to a wide range of information, can express themselves freely, and have a higher level of political knowledge. However, it is unclear to what extent digital media actually promote an increase in knowledge and openness to different perspectives. While some studies confirm this positive impact, others point to neutral or even negative effects. "We urgently need to investigate how digital media - their algorithms and functions, but also the dynamics among users - interact with the individual variables. And above all: What causes what?" emphasizes Lisa Oswald.

Replication studies play a central role in science because they verify whether earlier research results hold up. They help to confirm findings, correct mistakes, and gain a more profound understanding of key issues. This study not only confirms the original findings of Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, Lisa Oswald, Stephan Lewandowsky, and Ralph Hertwig, but also expands on them with new data to paint an even more comprehensive picture of the influence of digital media on democracy.