People with disabilities could play an enormous role in deciding the outcome of the presidential election and the balance of power in Congress.
In a new report, the Rutgers Program for Disability Research projects 40.2 million people with disabilities will be eligible to vote in November, a 5.1% increase since 2020 due to an aging population and medical advances.
Voter turnout is steadily rising in the disability community, suggesting an electorate that is increasingly engaged when voting is accessible.
"People with disabilities are the sleeping tiger in American politics," said Professor Lisa Schur, Co-Director of the Rutgers Program for Disability Research. "They represent a large and growing portion of the electorate, and they could make a critical difference in the outcome of this and future elections."
The researchers analyzed Census Bureau data to estimate the size of the disability electorate, including demographic and state-level projections. According to their report:
- 1 in 6 eligible voters has a disability (40.2 million), an increase of 5.1% since 2020, double the 2.5% rise in the number of eligible voters without disabilities.
- 1 in 3 eligible voters either has a disability or lives with someone who has a disability, a combined total of 72.7 million people.
- Mobility impairment is the most common disability (22.1 million), followed by cognitive impairment (14.4 million), hearing impairment (11.9 million), and visual impairment (7.2 million). These groups overlap, as many people have more than one disability.
- As a voting demographic, there are more eligible voters with disabilities (40.2 million) than eligible voters who are Hispanic/Latino (35.7 million) or Black (31.1 million).
- 7.1 million eligible voters with disabilities live in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Nearly 62% of people with disabilities voted in 2020, up from 56% in 2016, according to an earlier report by the Rutgers Program for Disability Research.
Mail-in voting during the pandemic increased accessibility, but many states have now passed laws that make it harder to vote, raising questions about whether people with disabilities will be able to fully participate in this election.
"People with disabilities are just as interested in voting as other citizens, as shown by their rising turnout despite the voting difficulties they often face," said Distinguished Professor Douglas Kruse, Co-Director of the Rutgers Program for Disability Research. "The high stakes in this election will motivate many people with disabilities to vote, and it's important that they be able to do so easily."
