EPA Rule: Power Plant Emissions Cut With Low Costs

In this Policy Forum, John Bistline and colleagues analyze the potential impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's finalized power plant rules regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Using nine models of the U.S. electric sector and energy systems, the researchers found that the rules would speed up the reduction of emissions in the power sector. Under the rules, the levels of carbon dioxide emitted by the sector would be 61%-81% below 2005 levels by 2040. Under current policies, emission levels would be 51% to 83% below 2005 levels by 2040, indicating that the finalized rules would narrow the range of emission levels. As the U.S. electric power sector is the second-highest greenhouse gas emitting sector in the world's second highest emitting country, the researchers suggest their analysis can help guide utilities and lawmakers as they make technology and compliance changes in response to the new rules. The models by Bistline et al. also show that the costs of regulations under the new rules are limited relative to costs without the rules, mainly due to the cost-effectiveness of coal CO₂ reductions and flexible compliance options. The rules also reduce co-pollutant emissions that "can bring near-term air quality benefits and improve public health in environmental justice communities, which have historically been disproportionately impacted by pollution, and beyond," Bistline et al. write. However, the fate of the EPA finalized rules is uncertain under a new presidential administration, the researchers note.