Just two weeks after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and killed at least 230 people in its path, the southern state is bracing for another intense hurricane.
Meteorologists estimate that Hurricane Milton, a storm as powerful as Hurricane Helene, may hit Florida's heavily populated west coast areas, including Tampa, Wednesday. State officials have ordered more than a million people to evacuate, and on some major highways cars are already backed up for several miles.
"If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die," Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said Monday.
But not everyone is willing to leave their homes behind, and not everyone has the resources to evacuate, said Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, a research associate at the Natural Hazards Center at CU Boulder. She has been exploring what motivates people to evacuate or stay behind in disasters like hurricanes and tornados.
"There are many factors that influence people's decisions," said MacPherson-Krutsky. "Evacuating is a privilege, and a lot of people don't have that privilege."
CU Boulder Today sat down with MacPherson-Krutsky to talk about what drives people's evacuation decisions, the challenges of communicating risk, and what people facing increasingly frequent and intense natural disasters can do.
Carson MacPherson-Krutsky
What motivates people to either shelter in place or evacuate during events like hurricanes or tornadoes?
In partnership with Federal Emergency Management Agency, I am conducting a literature review, including 105 peer-reviewed articles and 13 agency reports, to understand why people don't go to storm shelters during disasters. I found that many people lack information about shelters. They are unaware of where the shelters are, whether they have room or unclear if they can bring pets.
We also found that people underestimate the risk despite warnings or have experienced events in the past that weren't as bad as people had warned, and so they think they're going to be safe at home. Research has shown that women are twice as likely to evacuate when given a directive compared to men. Women tend to have higher risk perceptions, so they're more likely to take action to try to reduce that risk.
Another challenge that's really relevant to Hurricane Helene is that many people lack transportation resources, time or social support to evacuate.
Did any of the findings stand out for you?
The lack of planning for different types of populations, like people with pets, disabilities, or transportation issues, was particularly sobering. Authorities and agencies often fail to plan specifically for people with access and functional needs, creating barriers for many people to access storm shelters or evacuate.
One example from the literature involved a person in a wheelchair who contacted authorities for evacuation assistance. But the authorities didn't have the right transportation for the wheelchair, so they had to evacuate the person without it. This person ended up bedbound for the next week in the shelter. It was just a really terrible experience.
You also found that many people have negative perceptions about shelters. What are they?
There's a lot of uncertainty about what people can expect in shelters. Many shelters are open spaces, which makes people uncomfortable around strangers. This can also make it hard to rest and people sometimes have fears about personal safety.
Religious minorities had concerns about safety, cleanliness, privacy for religious practice, and finding appropriate food options. Nursing mothers and people with children have reservations about whether there will be accommodations for them.
Some people may stay at hotels, but not everyone can afford that.
What can be done to help people make better decisions during future disasters?
Better risk communication is crucial. In flooding events, for example, we often use terminology like 'once in a 100-year flood,' and people can't connect what that really means on the ground. We can put "high water mark" lines around the community, for example, to help people understand how high the water can flow. Because of climate change, we're experiencing disasters that are more severe than we've ever seen. How we communicate the risk also has to be different.
Emergency managers and local authorities also need to plan ahead. How are you going to evacuate people with disabilities or pets? Do they have bussing plans in place to help people without vehicles? Where will these people stay for short or longer-term? Having those plans outlined clearly in advance will then make it possible for people to evacuate more readily.
Do you have any tips for people trying to decide whether to stay or leave?
Pay attention to what your local authorities are suggesting. They are the ones that have the most up-to-date information. And if they're suggesting evacuation, consider those options if possible. Do research in advance to know where you can go if there's a storm.
Even if you live in an area that doesn't get many hurricanes, you can face the impacts of disasters like power outages anytime. So it's good to have resources available and ready if you are able.
Having those conversations before it gets to an emergency can save lives.
CU Boulder Today regularly publishes Q&As with our faculty members weighing in on news topics through the lens of their scholarly expertise and research/creative work. The responses here reflect the knowledge and interpretations of the expert and should not be considered the university position on the issue. All publication content is subject to edits for clarity, brevity and university style guidelines.
