President Trump's long-anticipated travel ban takes effect today, marking a significant shift in U.S. immigration policy. University of Michigan expert Jonathan Hanson, a lecturer in public policy at the Ford School, said the implications of this controversial measure will negatively impact many sectors.
How surprised were you by Trump's move, especially when he has gone out of his way to bring in white South Africans while the travel ban affects countries with generally black and brown populations?
No big surprise here. This travel ban has been in the works since January 20, when Trump issued an executive order calling upon security and intelligence agencies to identify countries that were deemed "deficient" at providing information to vet and screen those seeking admission to the United States.
The very special treatment given to white South Africans ("Afrikaners") in granting them refugee status is striking, however, since Trump has otherwise suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program and terminated the Temporary Protected Status of refugees from countries like Afghanistan, Cameroon, Haiti and Venezuela.
How does this travel ban compare to similar actions taken by past administrations? What lessons can be learned from those instances?
The first Trump administration needed three tries to formulate a travel ban that would survive court scrutiny. These initial efforts targeted seven majority-Muslim countries and were halted by the courts in a context where Trump himself had called for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States." The latest travel ban draws lessons from the third attempt, which survived a 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court decision, and is crafted to avoid legal reversals. The list of countries is more diverse, and specific criteria and exceptions are described in the order.
What impact will this have on universities from disallowing any student visas from these countries?
The order suspends the issuance of student visas for people from 19 countries. In 2023-2024, according to the Washington Post, nearly 25,000 students from those countries attended American colleges and universities. Although this is only a fraction of the over 1 million international students studying in America, the travel ban is only one of many actions affecting the ability of international students from around the world to obtain student visas, and many other students will simply decide to go to universities in other countries given all the uncertainty and fear being manufactured. The effects of these policies could be very widespread.
What potential economic impacts could this travel ban have, particularly in sectors like tourism, education and business?
The American system of higher education has been one of our most successful export industries, adding $50 billion to our current account balance. The travel ban comes on top of other actions by the administration that will restrict or discourage international students from coming to the U.S., harming our trade balance. Meanwhile, cutbacks on funding for scientific research will damage universities and hinder our ability to develop new technologies that will drive the economy in the future. These policies will harm our economy without doubt.
International travel to the United States is already in decline, with data from the Department of Commerce showing a 14% decline in international visits this past March compared to a year before. The World Travel & Tourism Council projects a decline in revenue from tourism of more than $12 billion this year. All of that was from before the travel ban was announced, affecting roughly 125,000 potential travelers, and it will only reinforce the message that visitors from abroad are not welcome here.
How does the American public generally respond to travel bans of this nature, and does it vary significantly along party lines?
Polls during Trump's first term initially showed a narrow majority supporting his first travel ban, with a strong divide along party lines, but when the courts struck down the first ban, about half of Americans thought Trump should just move on. There will likely be poll data on this new ban soon.
What logistical and administrative challenges might the government face in effectively implementing the travel ban?
Enforcement is fairly straightforward at official border crossings. People will not be allowed to enter the country if traveling with a passport from the affected countries unless they meet the criteria for an exception. Most types of visas will no longer be issued for future travel. Airlines will play a role; they generally will not allow passengers to board a flight if their passport is from a country subject to the ban.
