Larger image. Created by Dave Peterson, Political Science, and Deb Berger, Strategic Relations and Communications, at Iowa State University, Jan. 11, 2024.
AMES, Iowa – The fifth and final wave of the Iowa State University/Civiqs Poll indicates GOP voters are set in their preferences for presidential nominees, just days ahead of the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.
Of the 1,128 registered Iowa voters surveyed from Jan. 5-10, 433 said they "definitely" or "probably" will attend the Iowa Republican Caucuses. Over half (55%) of these likely caucus-goers selected former president Donald Trump as their top pick. This is consistent with results from December, which showed him at 54%.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tied for second place, each coming in with 14%. It was slight drop for DeSantis (-4%) and Haley (-2%) compared to last month.
Around three-quarters of the participants said their minds were made up regarding their first-choice candidate, compared to about half from the first wave of results in September.
"The biggest news from this is, of course, the stability of this race. Again, not a lot of people are changing their mind. People who came into this race knowing they wanted Donald Trump to be the nominee have kept that position the entire time, which is about half of likely caucus-goers," says Dave Peterson, Lucken Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University and organizer of the ISU/Civiqs poll.
Peterson adds that former New Jersey governor Chris Christie's decision to drop out of the race could benefit Haley. While only 4% of likely caucus-goers said Christie was their top-choice, over half of them selected Haley as their second choice. The rest said they were unsure who they would pick.
When asked which candidate was their second choice, 30% of likely Republican caucus-goers chose commentator and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; 24% picked DeSantis and 20% selected Haley. Trump received 9% for the second-choice candidate.
"What's going on is that Trump supporters have decided that Ramaswamy is their second choice," says Peterson. "But given how strong Trump support is among his supporters, that doesn't mean a lot for Ramaswamy because those folks are not going to change their mind and switch to him next Monday."
Peterson adds that it's unclear how the weather will affect caucus turnout.
"It's likely to be the coldest caucus Iowa has ever seen, and there are two rules of thought about what that might mean. It could be disadvantageous for Trump whose supporters tend to be a little older and may need to travel longer distances," explains Peterson. "The flipside is that it may hurt Nikki Haley a bit."
He says Haley's supporters appear to be more motivated by opposition to Trump or DeSantis than her platform. They may be less inclined to come out to caucus for Haley on a cold, winter night.
Larger image. Created Jan. 11, 2024 by Dave Peterson, Political Science, and Deb Berger, Strategic Relations and Communications at Iowa State University.
The Iowa State University/Civiqs poll is unique in that some participants are surveyed multiple times across the five months leading up to the caucuses. Peterson says the design decision makes it easier to track shifting perspectives. While the 2023/2024 caucus season has shown very little movement compared to previous years, the political scientist and his team of four undergraduate student researchers are noticing other changes in the survey data.
This includes the survey participants' emotional reactions to presidential candidates, motivations for participating in or abstaining from the political process, and issues that unite and divide voters within the Republican Party. The researchers plan on compiling and publishing the additional findings in the coming months.
The Iowa State University/Civiqs poll was sent to selected members of the Civiqs research panel with an oversample of Republicans and independents.
The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification and congressional district to be representative of the population of registered voters and likely Republican Caucus attendees in Iowa. The survey has a margin of error of ±4.3% for registered voters and ±6.4% for likely Republican Caucus attendees, both at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.
Funding for the poll is provided by Iowa State's Department of Political Science, the Lucken Professorship in Political Science and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences.
