Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024 but total emissions from fossil fuel and land use changes over the last decade have stabilised, according to the Global Carbon Budget released today .
The report is produced by leading research international organisations, including CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, as part of the Global Carbon Project. It provides an overview of the global carbon cycle, including both natural and human-induced emissions.
CO₂ is a long-lived greenhouse gas, and along with methane and nitrous oxide, it leads to human-driven climate change. It can persist for hundreds of years in the atmosphere.
CSIRO's Dr Pep Canadell, Global Carbon Project Executive Director, said the report shows global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise despite significant increases in the adoption of renewable energy.
"We have seen a 0.8 per cent increase in global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in 2024, compared to 2023," Dr Canadell said.
"This equates to a total of 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ projected to be emitted in the atmosphere from fossil fuel use this year alone."
Key findings:
- The growth in 2024 fossil emissions comes on top of a 1.4% growth in 2023 emissions.
- CO₂ emissions from land-use changes such as deforestation have on average declined over the past decade. This means total emissions from both fossil fuels and natural sources have stabilised over the last decade.
- Globally, fossil fuel CO₂ emissions come from coal (41 per cent), oil (32 per cent) and gas (21 per cent).
- China contributed 32 per cent of total global CO₂ emissions, followed by the United States (13 per cent), India (8 per cent) and the European Union (7 per cent).
- By the end of 2024, CO₂ concentrations are projected to reach 422.5 parts per million, which is 52 per cent above pre-industrial levels (1750).
- Australia had a 0.4 per cent decrease in CO₂ fossil fuel emissions in 2023, with this downward trend expected to continue.
Looking at 2024, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes are projected to increase.
"Globally, emissions from land-use change have decreased by 20 per cent in the past decade but are rising this year, along with fossil fuel emissions," Dr Canadell said.
"We have observed over the past two years how the capacity of natural CO₂ sinks on land which absorb carbon from the atmosphere, mainly forests, have declined due to drought in the Amazon and fires in Canada.
"The CO₂ sinks have begun to recover but the data underscores how vulnerable they are to droughts and extreme heat, which are increasing with global warming."
There has been a decline or slowing of global CO₂ emissions across 22 countries. However, the Global Carbon Budget shows there is a 50 per cent chance of exceeding the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C warming in six years.
A downward trend in global CO₂ emissions is required to meet net zero targets and minimise the impacts of climate change.
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 was launched today at COP29, the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. It is the 19th edition of the annual update that started in 2006.
This project is supported with funding from the Australian Government under the National Environmental Science Program's Climate Systems Hub.
