Is this the darkest hour for Australian manufacturing? Or the beginning of a bright new day?
There has been plenty of unwelcome news for our industrial members in recent years. High gas prices have put sites under serious pressure. Many bosses have been unwilling to invest in repairs and upgrades to bring facilities into the present day. Operations have been undercut by new technologies overseas.
But while there are any number of reasons a site may find itself in trouble one factor is common across the board: the transition to cleaner energy.
For over a century, the factories that built modern Australia have both relied and thrived on coal, gas and electricity generated with fossil fuels.
But today we're told that Australia can become a manufacturing superpower in the low emissions world.
This seems contradictory. Will we actually move into this light, or just slip further into the current gloom?
What does it take?
We believe a successful transition is possible. With our world class potential in renewable energy, mineral wealth, first-class workforce and industry knowhow, few countries can produce products like green hydrogen and metals as cheaply as us.
But a successful transition must mean one that puts working people first. It must be a transition in which manufacturers can both navigate today's turbulence and benefit from tomorrow's green economy.
What can we do now?
So how do we pull it off? It won't be easy, but ignoring the activists is a great start.
They argue the only path to net zero is to shut entire industries overnight. They're especially quick to call for an end to gas. We can't let that happen. We know manufacturers will need to move away from gas in the long term, but this will be a gradual process for most. Any sudden cut-off threatens hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Some might consider that collateral damage. Not us, not ever.
In reality, we need to embrace gas for today. As current wells deplete, new supply sources can ensure industry has access to gas while it shifts to other fuels. We must also improve our laws to require producers to sell gas to local industry at fair prices (stay tuned for more on that from us soon).
Building new industries
Next, we need government and business to come together on building new industries. We really do have the potential to lead the world in green manufacturing.
But other countries are pouring countless sums into stealing the initiative, and private investors here aren't moving fast enough. The government recently pledged $22 billion to partner with business on growing the green hydrogen and critical minerals industries.
That's a great start. But we will push them to do the same for green steel, aluminium and jet fuel - three more areas where we see huge potential. Equally, Australia must put its foot to the floor on renewables.
We aren't building nearly enough new wind, solar, storage and transmission to supply industry with the clean electricity it will need. That needs to change quickly. Much faster development approvals should be the immediate priority.
The AWU will also work on other changes to help industry with the transition. As our facilities reduce emissions, we need to guard against undercutting by foreign producers that aren't transitioning. This can be done with a new tax on imports called a 'Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism'. We are fighting to make sure the government introduces one as soon as possible.
No worker left behind.
But overriding all this is the need for a 'just transition' that is truly just. Of course, that means all new jobs we create should be well-paid, secure, union jobs. But we also need to ensure no worker is left behind. Part of that is ensuring our current sites make it through the transition. While government is providing some support here, more is required.
The AWU has also worked hard on the government's new Net Zero Economy Authority. This will help give workers in facilities that do close a safety net: for example, by supporting redeployments. But again, workers need more here, like guarantees they can go into jobs that pay as well as the ones they leave.
A brighter future is within our grasp. But we will need government and industry to listen to workers, collaborate and move quickly. Whatever it takes, the AWU is up for it.
We will do everything we can to protect our members and deliver quality jobs, so Australia continues to be a country that makes things. This century and beyond.