A recent WHO-led study published in Vaccine provides updated estimates on the global production capacity of influenza vaccines, highlighting both progress and persistent challenges in pandemic preparedness. As an activity tracked in the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework Partnership Contribution High-Level Implementation Plan III (2024-2030) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework , this analysis estimates that annual seasonal influenza vaccine production remains stable, however the lack of manufacturing facilities in the African region and in low- and middle-income countries could lead to unequal access and distribution in the event of a pandemic.
The study found that since the last survey in 2019, annual seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has remained relatively stable at 1.53 billion doses. This could support a pandemic vaccine capacity of 4.13 billion doses in a moderate-case scenario and 8.26 billion doses in a best-case scenario. This estimate does not reflect potential mRNA production capacity as no seasonal or pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines are licensed at this time.
The analysis documents that over 80% of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines rely on egg-based production, with inactivated influenza virus vaccines comprising the majority of supply. Reliance on embryonated eggs presents supply chain vulnerabilities, and access to other critical supplies may limit rapid scale-up during a pandemic. Expanding cell-based vaccines, including recombinant protein vaccine technologies, and investment in next-generation vaccines, such as mRNA-based influenza vaccines, could improve production speed and increase vaccine supply.
The study also found that while vaccine manufacturing facilities exist in most WHO regions, the African Region remains without local production. Production capacity is concentrated in high income and upper-middle income countries. The authors recommend strengthening local vaccine manufacturing, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, to ensure equitable access.
Seasonal influenza vaccination is important to prevent influenza and make illness less severe. It is especially important for people at high risk of influenza complications and their carers. Promoting seasonal influenza vaccination also supports global manufacturing capacity and bolsters pandemic readiness. This is because, in the event of a pandemic, manufacturers of the seasonal influenza vaccine leverage existing production processes and manufacturing facilities to create pandemic vaccines.
As the world prepares for future influenza pandemics, addressing these production and distribution challenges is critical. WHO continues to support efforts to expand access, innovate vaccine technologies, and strengthen global preparedness.
For more details, the full study is available in Vaccine (2025) .
