A new report presented in New York on 8 April reveals that current United Nations projections on infant mortality rates are inaccurate.
The Fragile Futures report says crucial factors missing from current United Nations projections - the impacts of climate change and population on infant mortality - will cause infant mortality to rise and children's overall health to decline this decade.
While current United Nations projections predict a continuing decline in infant mortality, new evidence in the Fragile Futures report shows that climate change and population dynamics in the most climate-vulnerable regions will increase infant mortality rates.
UK-based NGO Population Matters funded the independent Fragile Futures evidence review, conducted by the Future Child Health research team at The Kids Research Institute Australia, with help from The University of Western Australia and Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University in South Australia.
Representatives from Population Matters and the Future Child Health research team attended the United Nations Commission on Population Development in New York, and presented the Fragile Futures research at a side event ("A Discussion on Child Health and Climate") on 8 April.
Report co-author Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University says that evidence revealed in the Fragile Futures report shows that infant mortality is rising.
"Although United Nations' projections on infant mortality show a continuing decline to 2100, recent evidence suggests that infant mortality is increasing in several countries, including the United States, France, India, Madagascar, Cambodia, Nepal, and the Philippines."
The report also presents evidence that climate change will increase pre-term births. "Rising temperatures are linked to a 60% increase in preterm births, a major contributor to higher rates of infant mortality and health complications later in life even in those children who survive," says co-author Dr Melinda Judge from The Kids Research Institute Australia and The University of Western Australia.
"The risk of pre-term birth is already higher in low- and middle-income countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia accounted for 65% of all preterm births globally in 2020, and this will increase due to more frequent and persisting heatwaves."
Children's respiratory health is identified as being at increased risk. "Climate change and higher population density also causes more exposure to air pollution, increasing cases of asthma, eczema, and allergies in young children," says co-author Professor Peter Le Souëf from The University of Western Australia and The Kids Research Institute Australia. "In Africa, air pollution was linked to 449,000 additional infant deaths in 2015."
The report shows that preventable deaths of women and newborns are increasing. In 2020, 287,000 women died from preventable pregnancy-related complications, and 80% of newborn deaths were due to preventable and treatable conditions. Investment in sexual and reproductive healthcare saves lives.
Cuts to international aid budgets are also having an effect on these figures. "The withdrawal of USAID support between 2025 and 2028 is projected to result in 1,200 additional preventable maternal deaths in Afghanistan alone," says Professor Bradshaw.
"The total impacts of lost aid on women and children's health remains unknown - but will be catastrophic without intervention."
