The Climate Council's Heat Map tool reveals Australia's biggest cities could experience dangerous hotter temperatures in the coming decades without accelerated climate action. It also shows that continuing to cut climate pollution can safeguard Australians from the worst impacts of soaring heat.
Under a high pollution or "drill, baby, drill" scenario, where the world follows US President Donald Trump's lead and fails to cut back on burning coal, oil and gas, Australia will suffer. Some areas will swelter through two thirds of the year above 35℃ by 2090.
On the flipside, if Australia and other countries keep cutting climate pollution, the increase in hot days and deadly heatwaves will be much more moderate. For example, by 2090 the Wentworth electorate, including Bondi, would experience four times as many sweltering days under the Donald Trump "drill, baby, drill" scenario (12 days over 35℃ on by 2090 compared to 3 days under a low pollution scenario), while Parramatta in Sydney's west will face more than three times the number of days over 35℃ under this high pollution scenario.
| "Drill, baby, drill" will see Aussie cities "grill, baby, grill": Heat change examples across Australia's biggest cities by 2090 Sydney under a high emissions, "drill, baby, drill" scenario: The Bradfield electorate (including suburbs like Willoughby and Turramurra) goes from 5 hot days to 21, a four-fold increase by 2090.The Bennelong electorate (including Ryde, Chatswood and Woolwich) will bake, with four times the number of hot days (from 6 days to 23) by 2090.Fowler and Blaxland electorates in Western Sydney are the fourth and ninth lowest income electorates in Australia, and will experience more than three times the number of hot days by 2090. Melbourne under a high emissions, "drill, baby, drill" scenario: The Casey electorate, located on Melbourne's eastern edge, faces four times the number of hot days over 35℃ by 2090, rising from 3 days to 14.The Goldstein electorate, located on Melbourne's Bayside, faces 20 days over 35 degrees by 2090 (up almost threefold from 7 currently), if we fail to cut climate pollution. Brisbane under a high emissions, "drill, baby, drill" scenario: The Brisbane electorate currently has an average of around 2 days over 35℃ and 1 night above 25℃, but faces a 12-fold increase in hot days (to 24) and 33-fold increase in hot nights (to 33) by 2090. The Ryan electorate (including Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha suburbs) will swelter with 10 times the number of hot days (up to 30 ) and 20 times the number of hot nights (up to 20 from 1) by 2090. |
The Climate Heat Map of Australia also shows that the worst heat will hit communities least able to cope with it, including our lowest income electorates and those with the highest proportion of Aussies vulnerable to heat: people over 65 and children under 5. For example, children in Northern Territory's Lingiari electorate, Australia's poorest electorate*, will spend the majority of their lives sweating through extreme heat and, by 2090, there will be 235 days over 35℃ each year.
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said: "The Climate Council's Heat Map shows Australians will suffer the consequences of climate change, by sweltering through a dramatic increase in oppressive heat unless we rapidly accelerate climate action. Donald Trump's "drill, baby drill" attitude towards climate change is a recipe for climate chaos that must not be followed by the rest of the world. Let's be clear: "drill, baby, drill" means Australian suburbs will grill, baby, grill".
"Progress is being made to cut climate pollution, but we need to pick up the pace. As Australians go to the polls, we must understand that the next government's climate policies will determine the type of future our kids experience.
"Australia is currently part of the global shift to renewables backed by storage, with about 40% of the electricity in our energy now coming from renewable sources. Any policies that slow this momentum will make our lives hotter and our kids' lives unbearable. We can't afford false solutions like nuclear, which the independent Climate Change Authority noted this week could blow out national emissions by more than 2 billion tonnes in the next 25 years.
"This election, the heat is on and Aussie voters face a choice. With Australia getting hotter, will they vote for politicians who commit to cutting climate pollution further and faster, or those who will make the heat unbearable."
Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly said: "This updated heat map tool comes as the world experienced the hottest January on record, right on the heels of 2024 being the hottest year on record globally.
"Sydney electorates like Bradfield and Bennelong will bake, with four times the number of hot days experienced by 2090. Sydney's Fowler and Blaxland are the fourth and ninth lowest income electorates in Australia and will experience more than three times the number of hot days by 2090. In regional towns and outback areas the heat will be even more oppressive.
"These figures are also average increases, which means there will be some years in which many more extremely hot days are experienced than the projected average number over two decades."
Climate Councillor, Dr Kate Charlesworth said: "Aussie kids under five right now are fast becoming the 'Sweltering Generation'. What's deeply concerning is that some of our hottest areas are also neighbourhoods where families can least afford to install or run airconditioning.
"We know that nationally, heatwaves are our most deadly unnatural disaster. In 2009, 432 people in Victoria and South Australia died in a heatwave, and it's not just humans who suffer from hot weather: last month a marine heatwave killed 30,000 fish off the coast of WA.
"To protect our families and the creatures and places we love from extreme heat, we need deep and rapid cuts to climate pollution now."
The modelling also shows that many communities in regional areas face double or triple the number of hot days, but are less able to cope with rising heat because of their age or incomes.
For example, in New South Wales, Lyne has the largest proportion of people over 65 of any Australian electorate, and is set to swelter through three times more hot days by 2050 (from 3 days to 9 days) while the nearby Cowper electorate also has a high proportion of people over 65 and is set to swelter through an extra four days of heat by 2050.
In Victoria, one in four voters in Flinders and Wannon are over 65. Flinders faces double the number of hot days on average while Wannon will see almost double by 2050.
* Poorest electorate calculated on Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage.
