Without a mature discussion on population growth, the housing crisis will extend for years to come, according to Sustainable Population Australia (SPA).
SPA National president Peter Strachan says there is deep denial within the government that population is the main factor driving housing demand.
"The government's focus is on supply while the demand side is ignored," says Mr Strachan. "The result is a diabolical housing crisis causing misery for renters and home buyers alike.
"Instead of doing something about population growth, all sorts of reasons are found to blame ordinary Australians for somehow causing this crisis.
'"They say we have too much space in our homes and we need to increase the occupancy ratio. They say we are NIMBYs for resisting inappropriate development. They say we need to get used to living in shoddy high rise and don't worry about green space. They say we need to lift restrictions on development, adding to urban sprawl and destruction of the natural environment.
"All of this just so these unprecedented levels of population growth can continue. It is absurd."
SPA National President Peter Strachan
This is despite the respected economist, Alan Kohler, having recently laid out in forensic detail how, over two decades, population growth fuelled by high immigration has led to the current housing situation.
"We are now at the point where housing construction has no chance of catching up to ever-increasing demand caused by population growth," says Mr Strachan.
"It will be impossible to reach the Albanese government's target of 1.2 million new dwellings over five years. For that to happen, we need to be approving an average of 264,000 dwellings per year. In the past 12 months (to July 2024), 165,250 dwellings were approved, which is even lower than the 175,130 approvals in the preceding 12 months. We are heading in the wrong direction.
"The Urban Development Institute of Australia concedes that we are building less than we were five years ago and we are facing an ever-increasing housing supply gap.
"All of the supply side solutions, including social housing, require houses to actually be built. But this is not happening at anywhere near the rate required, due to a perfect storm of factors including: interest rates at a 12 year high; a 40% rise in construction costs since the start of the Covid pandemic; high rates of construction industry insolvency; and competition for materials and labour with big infrastructure projects.
"The obvious solution is to stop adding to demand with sky-high immigration levels,' Mr Strachan says. "This can be done relatively quickly by adjusting immigration visa policies and targets.
"Why the government is not doing this is one of life's great mysteries. But one thing is certain, if we don't do it, this housing disaster will drag on for years."
