On Tuesday, Republican Donald Trump out-performed polls (again) to win election for a second, non-consecutive term as President of the United States. His party had a good night overall and retook control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives still hangs in the balance.
Janet Donavan, teaching professor in the Department of Political Science at CU Boulder, has been following the results and exit polls from those races closely. She gives her take on how Trump pulled off such a convincing victory, what's next for the Democrats, and how people can manage their election-related anxiety.
How did Trump do it?
The evidence points to the fact that people were thinking about the economy and immigration. It was always going to be a tough road for Democrats because President Biden, who's the incumbent, had a low approval rating. People also feel that the economy is not doing well.
It turns out that the public was looking at those issues more than the issues Democrats really wanted them to look at. Democrats wanted to highlight democracy and some of the more extremist rhetoric that had come from the Trump campaign.
Janet Donavan
Were there any demographic differences from 2020 that surprised you?
One of the things that really doesn't surprise me, but that we should pay a lot of attention to, is the increasing divide in the United States between college educated Americans and Americans who don't have a college degree. People who have not obtained a college degree are much more likely to vote Republican, and people with a college degree are much more likely to vote Democratic.
In many ways, that is not a good thing for the country. It indicates that maybe people with college degrees are really out of touch with the experiences of the majority of Americans because most people don't have a college degree.
What stood out to you in races for the House and Senate?
The moderates in the Senate are largely gone, and they're being replaced by more polarized figures. Senator Manchin of West Virginia, for example, retired and was replaced by a conservative Republican. Senator Sinema of Arizona also retired, and the race to replace her is still too close to call. Whether it's going to be a very conservative Republican in Kari Lake or a fairly liberal Democrat in Ruben Gallego is not clear. But it's not going to be the moderate Sinema.
A lot of commentators have pointed to what they're calling a right-ward shift in politics around the country. How did that play out around Colorado?
It looks like the right-ward shift in politics is more pronounced in the eastern United States and particularly in the Midwest, but it doesn't seem as pronounced in the western United States.
The data are very preliminary, but my hunch is that the economy is better in the western United States than it is in the eastern United States. Another hunch is that immigration is seen more positively in the western United States than it is in the eastern United States.
Where are those hunches coming from?
The Colorado Political Climate Survey from the American Politics Research Lab just came out on Nov. 4. According to that, 50% of Coloradans agree those who migrate to the U.S. from other countries have a positive impact on the economy. We had a labor shortage right after COVID, and it was almost a relief to get people to come in and take jobs in Colorado. I'm not sure that was the case in other states.
If you were the head of the Democratic National Convention, what would you do to try to recoup from this shellacking?
Democrats need to look pretty hard at public opinion on some of the issues that they campaigned on. In particular, Democrats were hurt by not taking seriously people's concerns about inflation.
A lot of the economic indicators have been pretty good since the beginning of 2024 and even going back into 2023, but it hasn't hit people yet. When inflation goes up, prices tend to stay high. Wages are also sticky, which means that they don't go up as fast as prices. So even if the economy is in a recovering state, households themselves haven't recovered.
I think that Democrats need to listen and be more empathetic with the position that many Americans find themselves in of trying to pay the rent, pay the credit card bills, pay the grocery bills.
This election was stressful. How can people take care of their mental health?
I would say that we should all lay off the politics a little bit. That might sound a little funny coming from political science professor, but we don't need to spend 24 hours a day paying attention to news. Twenty minutes a day is probably enough to keep informed. After that, politics is a hobby, and if the hobby doesn't feel good, then you should probably stop.
How do you think we move forward from this election as a country?
I really think that it's important that we look at the lack of trust that we are seeing among the American people, and figure out ways to build hope, friendship and trust. We'll see if that happens in the presidential administration. If it doesn't happen in the presidential administration, it's something that we can all work on in our communities.
Yesterday, I was sending pictures of my dog playing in the snow to people who voted differently than I did. We need to reconnect on things that aren't politics and rest because the next election is two years away.
