In a recent report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) concluded that Pakistan will require $391 billion to achieve the low-carbon transition by 2050. The report uses the IIASA MESSAGEix framework to analyze the low-carbon transition pathways in Pakistan, the energy sector, the greenhouse gas emissions, and the associated challenges.
Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change. At the same time, the country is highly dependent on fossil fuels, with coal use expanding rapidly due to increasing urbanization and a growing population.
To assist the country in developing alternatives to fossil fuels, ADB produced a technological roadmap for facilitating a low-carbon transition in Pakistan. This roadmap was developed using the IIASA MESSAGEix framework and provides insights into the different energy options, focusing on current barriers and enablers for development.
"With the help of the MESSAGEix framework, users can rapidly prototype pathways for any country or region using the algorithms developed by our researchers. This helps stakeholders around the world to adapt these tools for their use case," says Muhammad Awais, a research scholar at IIASA. "In highly climate-vulnerable countries, this enables the policymakers to have direct access to evidence-based solutions, necessary for a low-carbon transition. Using our data, governments can quantify transition costs and identify the most efficient policy approaches."
The roadmap estimates that in a low-carbon scenario, between 2020 and 2050, hydropower generation in Pakistan will require investments of $153 billion, nuclear power will require $103 billion, wind power will require $62 billion, and solar power will require $51 billion. Investments in the transport and domestic sectors will be crucial to ensure energy efficiency savings, while additional funding will be necessary to secure grid stability, transmission, and distribution.
ADB also outlines the major required policy initiatives, necessary to achieve the transition: strengthening the system of financial intermediation, aligning incentives for the private sector with the goals of environmental policy, ensuring the regulatory system supports these goals effectively, and developing a system of project preparation and implementation that meets the requirements of multilateral and bilateral donor organizations.
What is MESSAGEix?
The IIASA Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGEix) is a framework for medium- to long-term energy system planning and policy analysis. It is used to explore development scenarios for the energy sector, assess challenges, and develop response strategies.
The modeling framework and the results provide core inputs for major international assessments and scenarios studies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the World Energy Council (WEC), the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), the European Commission, and the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).
