IMF Concludes 2024 Article IV Talks With Lesotho

• Lesotho's GDP growth has improved modestly, picking up to 2.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. Inflation increased in the second half of 2023, peaking at 8.2 percent in January 2024. But upward pressures have eased, and inflation has since fallen to 6.5 percent in June.
• The outlook for Lesotho's fiscal and external balances has improved significantly owing to windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and renegotiated water royalties.
• In this context, and amid Lesotho's sizable development needs, a key challenge for the authorities will be to ensure that this revenue is saved wisely and spent strategically.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Kingdom of Lesotho.

GDP growth picked up modestly to 2.2 percent in 12-month period ending March 2024, compared with 1.6 percent a year earlier. This largely reflects accelerated construction from the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. Nonetheless, unemployment remains high, diamond and textile exports have been sluggish, and an exceptional dry season increased food-security concerns across the country.

Headline inflation reached 6.5 percent in June, up from 4.5 percent in July 2023, though down from a peak of 8.2 percent in January 2024. The increase in inflation was largely due to exogenous factors that will most likely fade going forward.

Lesotho registered a sizable fiscal surplus of 6.1 percent of GDP in during the fiscal year ending March 2024. In a change from past practice, transitory SACU transfers

(10.4 percent of GDP higher than in FY22/23) were not accompanied by a parallel increase of the public wage bill. Instead, the authorities used the SACU proceeds to reduce arrears and rebuild deposits at the Central Bank.

In support of the Loti's peg to the Rand, the Central Bank of Lesotho has kept the policy rate steady at 7.75 percent since May 2023, in line with policy rates in South Africa.

Financial conditions remain stable—private sector credit growth picked up to 12.5 percent in FY23/24, mainly due to construction, while the nonperforming loans have eased to

3.8 percent of total loans as of 2023 Q4.

Growth is projected to peak in the fiscal year ending in March 2025 (at 2.7 percent), while inflation is expected to ease slowly. Another year of windfall SACU transfers (6 percentage points of GDP above the 10-year average) will again bolster fiscal and external balances in FY24/25. These transfers are projected to fall sharply starting in FY25/26, though higher water royalties will help fill the gap. As a result, the fiscal balance is projected at a surplus of around 1 percent of GDP over the medium term, with the current account deficit at a modest

2.6 percent.

The authorities are encouraged to continue their prudent fiscal approach, ensuring that additional revenues are saved wisely and spent strategically, while also pushing ahead with reforms to support private sector-led growth.

Executive Board Assessment[2]

Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the recent pickup in growth but concurred that Lesotho's economy faces substantial challenges, including high unemployment, widespread poverty, and sluggish growth. They also noted the risks posed by global growth shocks, extreme weather events, uncertain transfers from the South African Customs Union (SACU), and commodity price volatility. Against this background, Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to strengthening policy frameworks, supported by Fund capacity development as needed.

Directors emphasized the need for continued fiscal prudence to strengthen foreign exchange reserve coverage, safeguard the peg, and preserve medium-term debt sustainability. They agreed that containing the public wage bill, increasing spending efficiency, and prioritizing social spending on the most vulnerable remain critical. Given increased water royalties, Directors encouraged the authorities to establish a well-governed savings framework anchored by a credible fiscal rule to build buffers and support Lesotho's long-term development objectives.

Directors agreed that public financial management (PFM) should be strengthened. They encouraged passage of PFM-related legislation, and improved budget processes, strengthened internal controls, and enhanced financial reporting. Directors also underscored the importance of boosting public investment efficiency, through a prioritized capital project pipeline with enhanced project management capacity.

Directors concurred that monetary policy should focus on price stability and safeguarding the exchange rate peg. They noted the slowdown in inflation, but urged the authorities to monitor price dynamics closely and stand ready to adjust monetary policy if inflationary pressures reemerge. Directors encouraged the authorities to improve central bank governance and coordinate closely across institutions on fiscal and monetary policies.

Directors noted that the financial sector remains stable and encouraged continued monitoring of risks, including from the nonbank financial sector. They concurred that an updated national financial inclusion strategy would be key to improving financial intermediation and supporting private sector growth. They welcomed the progress made in strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks for financial stability and AML/CFT.

Directors strongly encouraged the authorities to implement much-needed structural reforms to catalyze job-rich inclusive growth, including by improving the business environment, strengthening governance, and reducing corruption risks. They lauded the authorities' commitment to improving data quality and timeliness to support policymaking.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.