- The Cambodian economy is projected to grow by 5½ percent in 2024, faster than in 2023, but performance is uneven across sectors. Garment and agricultural exports are strong, and tourism is recovering while real estate and construction are undergoing a correction.
- Fiscal policy needs to rebuild buffers, while supporting a durable and inclusive recovery of the economy. Raising revenues for growth-enhancing spending on education, health, and infrastructure is important. The risk of debt distress remains low.
- Monetary and financial measures need to focus on safeguarding financial stability against the backdrop of slowing credit growth and rising non-performing loans (NPLs).
- Structural reforms to enhance human capital, make the business environment more competitive, and strengthen institutions and governance would promote inclusive and sustainable economic development.
Phnom Penh,Cambodia : An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Kenichiro Kashiwase, visited Cambodia during September 17-30 to hold discussions for the 2024 Article IV consultation. At the end of the mission, Mr. Kashiwase issued the following statement:
"Cambodia's economic growth has strengthened, but the recovery remains uneven. Real GDP growth is estimated at 5 percent in 2023, a similar pace as in 2022. For 2024, the economy is projected to expand by 5½ percent driven by a strong rebound in garment and agricultural exports and the ongoing recovery in tourism. However, the construction and real estate sectors are going through a correction, following rapid growth in prior years.
"Inflation has moderated to an average of 1.6 percent (y/y) in the first half of 2024, down from 2.1 percent in 2023, reflecting global commodity price trends and weak domestic demand growth. For the full year, inflation is projected to reach around 1.5 percent before converging towards the long-term trend of 3 percent.
"The current account (CA) balance is expected to swing back to a deficit of around 1¾ percent of GDP this year as strong imports are expected to outpace robust export growth. International reserves improved and coverage remains broadly adequate.
"Fiscal deficit in 2023 is estimated at 2.8 percent of GDP with tax revenues falling due to softening of economic growth momentum and rising tax exemptions. Capital expenditure was also lower than planned due to delays in infrastructure execution. The fiscal deficit is projected at around 3 percent of GDP in 2024 and decline gradually over the medium term. Public debt to GDP is projected to increase moderately during the next decade, though the risk of debt distress remains low.
"Credit growth has sharply slowed amidst deteriorating asset quality and high private sector debt. In 2024Q1, NPLs rose to 6 percent of total loans, reflecting emerging vulnerabilities with the temporary roll-back of the COVID-19 forbearance measures.
"Risks to the outlook have shifted to the downside, notably due to weaker-than-projected demand from advanced economies and China, geoeconomic fragmentation, and high domestic private debt. Rising NPLs in the tourism and real estate sectors also pose risks to growth and financial stability. On the upside, a continued loosening of global financial conditions would support the recovery.
"Turning to policies, fiscal policy needs to rebuild the buffers diminished by the pandemic, while accommodating a durable and inclusive recovery of the economy. In case of adverse shocks to the economy, fiscal policy should react with a focus on priority spending measures aligned with development goals and well-targeted social protection for the vulnerable. Strengthening revenues is important to create space for growth enhancing spending on education, health, and infrastructure. Tax exemptions and incentives should be reviewed and rationalized to reduce tax base erosion. Other measures to strengthen revenues include implementing the personal income tax and improving tax compliance and administration efficiency. Improving the targeting of social assistance programs and strengthening public investment management are also priorities. As Cambodia approaches graduation from the least developed country status, continuing to strengthen policy frameworks alongside enhancements to public financial management practices, improved fiscal transparency and governance, and the development of the domestic government bond market would be critical.
"Monetary policy normalization should resume at a pace calibrated to the economic recovery and banking sector liquidity conditions. Important progress has been made in modernizing monetary policy and FX operations. Further efforts in this direction will be needed to enhance monetary policy transmission and support de-dollarization. Priorities include promoting an active KHR interbank market, developing a liquidity forecasting framework, further strengthening market determination of exchange rates, and improving the operational efficiency of monetary policy.
"Financial sector policies should focus on maintaining financial stability. Forbearance measures should be phased out to alleviate capital misallocation and address risks of debt overhang. The authorities should ensure proper reporting of loans subject to forbearance and foster the preservation of banks' liquidity and capital buffers. Provision of credit by real estate developers to homebuyers should be monitored closely and subject to stringent prudential requirements to avoid regulatory arbitrage. Intensified supervision efforts are warranted in the current environment. In the medium term, a comprehensive macroprudential policy strategy should be implemented, and a crisis resolution framework and deposit insurance scheme established.
"Structural reforms are needed to diversify growth drivers and improve productivity. Enhancing skills and education is essential to reap the demographic dividend, foster technology adoption, and facilitate the transition to climate-resilient, higher-productivity industries. The government's efforts to promote quality investment in higher-value-added activities and capture more of the value chain in agriculture are commendable. Further efforts to improve financial inclusion, advance digitalization, and enhance climate change resilience will also be needed for inclusive and sustainable development.
"Continued efforts to strengthen institutions and governance, and to improve quality and transparency of public service deliveries would bolster long-term sustainable growth. Priorities include approval of the law on Whistleblower Protection, the draft law on Transparency, and the draft law on Access to Information. The National Audit Authority's independence and resources should be strengthened along with improvements in the asset declaration regime and inter-agency cooperation. Addressing data limitations and improving macroeconomic data quality would benefit monitoring of the economy and policymaking. The IMF will continue to provide technical assistance to help improve statistics, and in other areas of capacity development.
"The IMF team held discussions with senior officials of the Royal Government of Cambodia, the National Bank of Cambodia, and other public agencies, as well as a wide range of stakeholders, including representatives of the business and banking sectors, and development partners. The team wishes to express its deep appreciation to the authorities and other interlocutors for open and constructive discussions."
