- International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement (SLA) on the Fifth Review of the 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Ukraine would have access to about US$ 1.1 billion (SDR 834.8 million).
- Program performance remains strong. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and the structural benchmark for the review. Understandings were also reached on policy settings and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability as the war continues.
- The economy remained resilient in the first half of 2024, but headwinds are intensifying and the outlook remains exceptionally uncertain. The continuing war will entail fresh financing needs, requiring determined policy efforts by the authorities and large-scale support from donors.
Kyiv, Ukraine - September 10, 2024: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions in Kyiv with the Ukrainian authorities, during September 4-10, 2024, on the Fifth Review of the country's 4-year EFF Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
"IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Fifth Review of the EFF. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in the coming weeks.
"Ukraine's four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF, continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities' economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Performance under the program has remained strong despite the war, with all quantitative performance criteria for end-June met, as well as the structural benchmark due for this review.
"Russia's war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the country and its people. Skillful policymaking, the adaptability of households and firms, and robust external financing has helped support macroeconomic and financial stability. Real GDP grew by 6.5 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2024, inflation has remained low at 5.4 percent y/y in July, and gross international reserves were adequate at US$42.3 billion as of September 1.
"However, an economic slowdown is expected in 2024H2 due to repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and the impact of the war on labor markets and confidence; growth is expected at 3 percent for 2024. Addressing the energy deficit ahead of the winter is critical, requiring coordinated efforts, including with international partners. With the war is expected to continue through 2025, real GDP growth is projected to be between 2.5-3.5 percent. Inflation is expected to rise to around 9 percent by end-2024. Risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high.
"The 2025 Budget needs to respect financing constraints and debt sustainability objectives, and determined domestic revenue mobilization efforts are critical. Timely and predictable external financial support, on terms consistent with debt sustainability, remains indispensable for maintaining economic stability.
"Tax revenues need to increase in 2025 and beyond to create space for critical spending, to preserve essential buffers and restore fiscal sustainability. Achieving this will require the implementation of permanent tax policy measures and relentless efforts to close existing opportunities for tax evasion, improve compliance, and combat the shadow economy, in line with the National Revenue Strategy (NRS). Legislation to reform the Customs code should confirm the central role of the Finance Ministry in overseeing customs, while robust processes should be established for selecting a permanent head of customs as well as other key leadership roles.
"The successful treatment of Ukraine's Eurobonds will deliver substantial debt relief, freeing up resources for priority spending areas. Attention is now shifting to the remaining external commercial claims in the restructuring perimeter, including the GDP warrants, which should be treated in line with the program's strategy to restore debt sustainability.
"Upside risks to inflation have reduced the scope for further easing through the end of the year, and the monetary policy stance remains appropriate and consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. The exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber and adjust to market fundamentals, thereby helping to safeguard external stability. Appropriate monetary policy combined with the framework of managed exchange rate flexibility should help prevent excessive exchange rate volatility and the de-anchoring of FX and inflation expectations. A judicious and staged approach to FX liberalization should continue in line with the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) strategy, and consistent with the overall policy mix.
"Effective governance frameworks are critical for durable growth, levelling the playing field, and pursuing the path to EU accession. In this regard, the independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. In particular, strengthening the criminal procedural code, establishing a new high administrative court, and reforming the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine are key. The inaugural external audit of the National Anti-corruption Bureau is a short-term priority. The full supervisory board of Ukrenergo should be re-established by end-December.
"The financial sector is stable and liquid, with reforms continuing apace despite challenges under Martial Law. To preserve financial stability and enhance preparedness for potential shocks, priorities include strengthening the bank rehabilitation framework, contingency planning, and bank governance.
"The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for their close collaboration and constructive discussions."
