Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Republic of Latvia and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis without a meeting.
The Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation. After the post-pandemic recovery, growth contracted by 0.3 percent in 2023, due to tighter financial conditions and weak external demand. Headline inflation declined to 0.0 percent y/y in May 2024. However, core inflation still stood at 3.1 percent in April 2024. The financial sector has so far been resilient although risks are elevated. Fiscal performance in 2023 was stronger than expected, reflecting revenue buoyancy linked to inflation and expenditure under-execution. The current account deficit narrowed to 4 percent of GDP in 2023 from 4.8 percent in 2022, due to import contraction and lower energy prices. Russia's war in Ukraine and the related geoeconomic fragmentation are adding to structural challenges amid multiple transitions, notably, climate change and energy, and aging and labor shortages. The economic consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to depress private investment and productivity, thus compromising further Latvia's lagging income convergence.
Amid high uncertainty, the outlook is for higher growth and the balance of risks is tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 1.7 and 2.4 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively, underpinned by a recovery in private consumption, higher public investment, and stronger external demand. Growth in the medium-term is projected to continue at an average of around 2.5 percent, supported by public investment and reforms. Inflation is expected to continue to moderate. Headline inflation (annual average) is projected to decline to 2.0 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, core inflation (annual average) is projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2024, reflecting persistent services inflation. Downside risks dominate, including risk to competitiveness associated with recent high wage growth, rising geopolitical tensions and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation, and weaker external demand.
Executive Board Assessment[2]
Latvia's economy has encountered severe headwinds. The Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation against the backdrop of geopolitical headwinds. Notably, Russia's war in Ukraine and the related geoeconomic fragmentation are adding to long-standing challenges to productivity, investment, and labor supply, amid multiple transitions around climate change and energy, aging and labor shortages, and rising defense costs.
Amid high uncertainty, growth is projected to rebound, but risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to increase in 2024 and 2025, largely driven by a rebound in private consumption, higher public investment, and stronger external demand. The main risks stem from rising geopolitical tensions and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation, credit risks related to variable-rate loans, and weaker-than-expected external demand. Risks to competitiveness can also arise given recent high wage growth. Over the medium-term, delays in public investment and structural reforms could weigh on potential growth.
Considering the improving outlook, staff recommends a less expansionary, neutral fiscal stance for 2024 and a tighter fiscal stance in 2025. Proactively identifying spending efficiency and better targeting social support, while protecting the most vulnerable, would help. Staff commends the authorities for the targeting of energy support measures. In 2025, the fiscal stance should be tighter to build buffers for future spending needs. Policy options to achieve this include reducing tax exemptions, raising revenue from property taxation, strengthening tax enforcement, and improving investment spending efficiency. Fiscal policy should remain flexible and evolve if risks materialize.
Although Latvia has some fiscal space, structural fiscal measures are needed to provide buffers for medium to long term spending pressures. Over the medium term, options for fiscal consolidation include (i) broadening the bases of corporate income tax (CIT) and personal income tax (PIT), including by reducing the shadow economy; (ii) broadening the base of property taxes; (iii) reducing tax exemptions and fossil fuel subsidies, and (iv) rationalizing spending on goods and services. Given this scaling-up of public investment amid high uncertainty and cost overrun, enhanced public investment management is warranted to mitigate fiscal risks. The mission welcomes the healthcare reform aimed to generate efficiency gains, while mitigating risks and supporting solidarity. Staff also welcomes the government's pension reform efforts and recommends linking the retirement age to life expectancy. Latvia should swiftly implement the NRRP.
Although the financial sector has so far been resilient, continued monitoring of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and spillovers is warranted. The banking sector remained well capitalized and liquid, with a low NPL ratio. However, given heightened risks, continued monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities is important. Notably, regular risk-based monitoring of banks' asset quality and liquidity should continue, supported by tailored stress tests. Any households' financial distress related to variable-interest-rate mortgage loans should be addressed through the consumer bankruptcy framework, supplemented by the social protection system for the most vulnerable. The new untargeted interest subsidy scheme for variable-interest-rate mortgages should not be renewed at its expiration in 2024. The authorities should refrain from further initiatives to increase taxation on bank profits given their adverse impact on bank capital and financial stability. Staff welcomes the continued efforts to mitigate cybersecurity risk.
While the current macroprudential policy stance is broadly appropriate, the recent adjustment to the borrower-based measures for energy-efficient housing loans should be reconsidered. The overall policy stance strikes the right balance between maintaining financial stability and the need to extend credit to the economy. However, borrower-based macroprudential measures should be relaxed only when their presence is overly stringent from the financial stability perspective.
Latvia has made significant progress in strengthening its AML/CFT frameworks and governance reforms. Staff commends the authorities' effort to pursue AML/CFT reforms and supports the authorities' priorities to prepare for the 6th round of MONEYVAL evaluation. Staff welcomes the authorities' reforms to digitalize the procurement system and the continued implementation of Latvia's anti-corruption plan and national strategy.
Structural reforms should be accelerated to enhance productivity and resilience. Accelerating corporate reforms could boost investment and productivity by improving capital allocation and access to finance. Given the aging population and skill mismatch, Latvia should continue to address reforms to boost high-skilled labor supply which will enhance investment in productivity. Efforts should focus on promoting training and internal labor mobility toward priority sectors (green and transition, digitalization, health). Further streamlining product and service markets regulations could boost competition, innovation, and productivity. Staff welcomes the ongoing overhaul of the administrative procedures and their digitalization. Implementing measures to promote digital transformation of the economy could help reduce labor shortages and support productivity. Regarding the green and energy transition, more vigorous climate policy is needed. Staff encourages the authorities to expedite the adoption of the climate law and the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The authorities should aim to achieve a robust balance between fiscal support, carbon pricing or taxation, and norms while addressing distributional concerns. Staff welcomes the ongoing work on climate adaptation. Latvia should continue to enhance energy security, and boost investment in clean energy and connection.
Table 1. Latvia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2019–25
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
