Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Chile on February 3, 2025 and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. [2]
The economy's imbalances have been largely resolved. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.2 percent in 2024, close to its potential pace, driven by the strong mining and service exports, and 2-2.5 percent in 2025, related to an expected recovery in domestic demand. However, the recovery has been uneven across industries, with the construction sector lagging and the unemployment rate remaining high. Inflation is set to return to the 3-percent target in early 2026, after the impact of the significant increase in electricity tariffs between June 2024 and early 2025 subsides. The current account deficit has continued to narrow and is projected to reach around 2½ percent of GDP in 2024 and 2025.
External risks and uncertainty remain elevated. The commodity price volatility linked to the economic outlook of Chile's main trading partners and the pace of the global green transition is a key external risk. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding monetary and fiscal policies in advanced economies could lead to tight financial conditions for longer periods of time and higher financial volatility. Domestically, concerns about crime, migration, and inequality persist; and political polarization is hindering the structural reform progress.
Policies have supported macroeconomic stability. The Central Bank of Chile lowered the monetary policy rate by 325 basis points since January 2024 to 5 percent in December 2024. The headline fiscal deficit is projected to reach 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 due to a notable revenue underperformance and despite significant spending restraint compared to the budget. The 2025 budget envisions a notable deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan toward a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027. By setting the neutral level of the countercyclical capital buffer at 1 percent of risk-weighted assets with a gradual and state-contingent implementation path from the current level of 0.5 percent, the Central Bank of Chile has provided banks with planning certainty for strengthening financial resilience.
Executive Board Assessment
The economy is broadly balanced but external risks are elevated. Chile's macroeconomic position is sound due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Real GDP is growing around its potential and inflation is expected to reach the 3-percent target in early 2026. The current account deficit has continued to narrow, and the 2024 external position is assessed as moderately weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals. Public debt is still relatively low and sustainable with high probability. However, the external environment is unstable and uncertain, which calls for policies that further strengthen economic buffers to provide additional policy space for future shocks.
Lifting Chile's growth potential is a must to raise living standards and tackle social and fiscal pressures. Taking a consultative approach, the government is advancing several growth initiatives, including: (i) expediting investment permit applications and environmental evaluations to encourage investment, (ii) fostering the development of emerging industries, particularly those related to renewable energy to maximize the benefits from the global green transition, and (iii) facilitating R&D. Swift and consistent implementation of these initiatives is crucial, especially in rationalizing the regulatory burden and improving essential infrastructure. Additionally, better integrating women into the labor market could partially offset the unfavorable demographic trends. The proposed new development bank requires a targeted mandate, sound risk management practices, and robust corporate governance.
The goal of a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027 remains appropriate but has become more challenging. The authorities' commitment to fiscal restraint by adjusting spending plans in 2024 and 2025 is welcome. To achieve a balanced fiscal position over the next three years, a gap of at least 1 percent of GDP needs to be filled. This could be achieved largely from the important tax compliance law if its implementation yields the planned additional revenue and is not used for new spending initiatives. It is therefore crucial to carefully monitor developments in tax compliance and remain flexible to adjust current spending in case revenue mobilization falls short of plans, while aiming to preserve public investment outlays in support of medium-term growth. Ensuring that any structural spending increases align with higher structural revenues is vital for fiscal sustainability, while unifying fragmented social programs could enhance access and effectiveness for the most vulnerable.
Continuous enhancements to Chile's already very strong fiscal framework would foster fiscal policy formulation and transparency. For instance, providing more details on debt-creating flows outside the fiscal deficit ("below-the-line" items) would strengthen the monitoring of fiscal pressures. Updating fiscal forecasting methods, in line with the government's plans, could improve revenue projections in the context of economic and policy shifts. Adopting a medium-term strategy to rebuild the size of the Economic and Social Stabilization Fund (ESSF) would help provide resources to respond to future shocks. Finally, simplifying the presentation of the fiscal targets and budget execution in the Public Finance Report could deepen the understanding of the fiscal balance rule framework.
A pension reform is essential to ensure adequate pensions and address the fiscal costs of population aging. Raising contribution rates and the number of contribution periods is vital for sustainably self-financing old-age pensions. The minimum guaranteed pension (PGU) has strengthened the system's solidarity, increased replacement ratios, and reduced old-age poverty, but it also incurs high fiscal costs. With the ratio of pensioners to the working-age population set to nearly double in two decades, it is crucial to manage public spending pressures while maintaining a solid safety net. Targeting the PGU to the most vulnerable elderly, linking the retirement age to life expectancy, and implementing the proposed unemployment insurance for pension contributions could further strengthen the system.
A cautious data dependent approach to the pace of monetary policy easing is warranted. The BCCh's monetary policy adjustments have been in line with its inflation-targeting framework. The real monetary policy rate is close to its estimated neutral range. With near-term inflation risks tilted to the upside, future cuts to the policy rate should remain contingent on evidence that inflation is heading decisively back to its target.
Rebuilding international reserve buffers is important for enhancing resilience. While the flexible exchange rate plays a critical role as a shock absorber, the Central Bank of Chile's access to international liquidity can provide an additional shield against potential external shocks. This underscores the importance of incorporating a comprehensive international liquidity framework into the central bank's longer-term financial stability strategy. The strategy and operational design should continue to follow high transparency standards, be persistent and robust to changes in external risks, and minimize distortions in the foreign exchange market.
The financial system remains resilient despite rising vulnerabilities related to the real estate sector and lower financial market depth. The real estate sector is expected to recover modestly as long-term interest rates gradually decline, and there are several mitigants to credit risk associated with lending to this sector. Nevertheless, supervisors need to carefully monitor banks and insurers' portfolio quality and buffers, including by closing commercial real estate data gaps and enhancing stress test models. Rebuilding the depth of local financial markets by increasing pension contributions, which would increase the pool of investable savings, is important to help reduce market volatility and sensitivity to shocks.
Financial sector policies need to continue reinforcing resilience. The recent adoption of a positive neutral level of the counter-cyclical capital buffer with a gradual and state-contingent implementation provides banks with planning certainty. The ongoing implementation of Basel III capital and liquidity requirements needs to be completed. Prompt implementation of the Financial Market Resilience Law would enhance the BCCh's ability to respond to financial distress situations. Other priorities continue to include adopting an industry-funded deposit insurance and a bank resolution framework, providing budget independence to the CMF, further enhancing bank corporate governance, and implementing the Consolidated Debt Registry.
Table 1. Chile: Selected Economic Indicators, 2023-27 |
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.
