IMF Wraps 2025 Article IV Talks with Antigua & Barbuda

Washington, DC: On March 13, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation ^[1] with Antigua and Barbuda and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. ^[2]

Antigua and Barbuda's post-pandemic economic expansion is continuing. Real output is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with growth estimated at 4.3 percent, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup). Inflation was elevated in 2024, reflecting contributions from specific items, notably communication, as well as increases in indirect taxes.

The recovery in nominal GDP, along with improved fiscal balances, brought down the public debt from around 100 percent of GDP in 2020 to 67 percent in 2024. However, gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10 percent of GDP in the medium term. Substantial domestic and external arrears, albeit with domestic arrears uncertain in size, have limited financing options. The fiscal primary balance improved to 4.6 percent in 2024, aided by indirect tax increases, a broader economic recovery, and one-off factors (e.g., nearly 2 percent of GDP from an asset forfeiture and unusually low capital spending). The 2025 Budget envisages stronger tax revenues and higher capital spending.

According to Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) preliminary estimates, the current account deficit narrowed to 7 percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting both a higher service trade balance—mainly tourism receipts—and a smaller goods deficit due to a contraction in imports. FDI inflows were resilient to tightening global financial conditions and continued to support ongoing hotel construction. Credit growth is recovering, with nonperforming loans contained.

Executive Board Assessment ^[3]

In concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda, Executive Directors endorsed the staff's appraisal, as follows:

Antigua and Barbuda's post-pandemic economic expansion continues. Economic activity, boosted by tourism, is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. As the recovery matures, staff projects economic growth to moderate from 3 percent in 2025 to 2½ percent over the medium term. After an increase in inflation in 2024, in part reflecting one-off factors, underlying price pressures are expected to dissipate. The external position in 2024 is assessed to be moderately weaker than the level implied by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies. Efforts to raise revenue and address debt and fiscal challenges bore fruit in 2024, though further steps will be needed to restore debt sustainability, address the stock of outstanding arrears, and reduce gross financing needs in the medium term.

Risks are currently tilted to the downside, although upside risks are also present. Downside risks emanate from elevated uncertainty about the global outlook; a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation; commodity price volatility; climate-related vulnerabilities; and capacity constraints in the construction sector. Upside risks stem from stronger demand for tourism; improved air connectivity; new cruise port facilities; hosting of special events; and the intensification of productivity-enhancing structural reforms, which could support higher medium- and long-term growth.

Addressing external and domestic arrears is key to broadening financing options. While the fall in nominal debt in 2024 is welcome, outstanding arrears to domestic suppliers and to the Paris Club remain obstacles to debt sustainability and constrain Antigua and Barbuda's potential access to external and domestic financing. Given the additional vulnerabilities stemming from climate change and the resulting substantial adaption and resilience-building investment needs, efforts to address the current debt challenges, bolster government revenues, and improve public financial management are all the more critical.

Recent improvements in tax revenue are welcome, with further domestic revenue mobilization needed in the medium term to ensure fiscal sustainability. Antigua and Barbuda's tax revenues remain below the authorities' fiscal resilience guideline targets and are low by peer country standards. The authorities' 2024 Budget measures have started to close the gap, but more will be needed in the medium term. To mobilize revenue without recourse to a personal income tax or higher ABST rates, near-term priorities could include tighter control of tax exemptions, transitioning to HS2022 classification in customs, and modernizing the framework for property taxation. Intensifying efforts to introduce a single window system at customs and to operationalize systems to allow e-filing, e-payment and e-registration of taxes is warranted. Introducing a large taxpayer unit as well as modernized IT systems would strengthen tax administration.

Better targeted social assistance would enhance inclusion while curbing inefficiencies. The current framework of social protection is fragmented across sectors and ministries. Staff sees scope to streamline these social programs to reduce overlap and tailor social assistance to the most vulnerable households. In this vein, staff encourages the development of a centralized information system or unified database to maintain accurate records of all beneficiaries, track support received, and identify gaps or duplications in coverage.

Room remains to strengthen fiscal institutions and oversight, building on recent progress. The operationalization of the Fiscal Responsibility Oversight Committee is welcome. To promote transparency and help build public understanding, staff encourages publication of FROC reports once further experience has been gained. These goals would also be served by parliamentary endorsement of the Fiscal Resilience Guidelines and the medium-term fiscal framework. Statutory exemptions should be consistent with the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority Act and the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority should monitor the approved projects. The envisaged reestablishment of the SOE unit in the Ministry of Finance would enhance SOE oversight and contain potential fiscal risks.

To reinforce financial stability and build on efforts to promote financial inclusion, regional coordination remains key. Staff assesses the financial sector to be broadly stable, with credit growth recovering and non-performing loans approaching prudential levels. The launch of the regional credit bureau can promote faster access to credit while maintaining lending standards. The ECCB-led climate risk initiatives and the regional partial credit guarantee scheme should also boost credit quality and financial intermediation. A more risk-based supervisory framework for credit unions, with enhanced monitoring of asset quality and credit forbearance measures in the context of the planned regional common regulatory standards, would help put credit unions and banks on a more level playing field. The inclusion of the ECCB in the National Oversight Committee on Financial Action improves coordination among supervisory authorities. The increase in investment thresholds for the Citizenship by Investment Program and the improved due diligence process can help safeguard the program's integrity.

Intensifying reforms to improve the business environment would support potential growth by improving the allocation of resources between firms and addressing obstacles to firms' operations. Staff analysis finds potential for large aggregate productivity gains from the reallocation of resources between firms, and scope to continue addressing obstacles that firms report in areas such as workforce education, access to finance, and customs and trade regulations. Targeted efforts to increase educational opportunities, employer‑employee matching at the One Stop Employment Centre, and the completion of the Skills Demand Survey, are warranted. Offering courses at local institutions could increase financial literacy among MSMEs, and implementing the single electronic window at customs would increase the efficiency of importing and exporting of goods.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The authorities have requested additional time to decide on the publication of the staff report. A final decision is expected not later than 28 days from the Board consideration date.

[3] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.