IMF Wraps Up 2024 Article IV Consultation With Togo

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Togo.

Following a series of shocks in recent years, Togo continues to face headwinds, including persistent challenges of food security and terrorist attacks, while broader development needs remain acute. Fiscal expansion implemented in response to the shocks has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up public debt, reversing the debt reduction achieved during the 2017–20 ECF-arrangement, eroding fiscal space and buffers to absorb shocks, and contributing to regional vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In response to these challenges, in March 2024, the International Monetary Fund approved the authorities' request for a new arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility.

Against a background of a substantial strengthening of fiscal revenue and a beginning of fiscal consolidation in 2023, the macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable. Growth is expected to remain robust, while fiscal revenue is expected to rise further. There are no substantial domestic or external disequilibria, with low inflation and a well-contained current account deficit.

The outlook is however subject to elevated risks, including from a potential intensification of terrorism, potential difficulties in securing affordable regional financing, and banking sector challenges. In the longer run, economic performance is also subject to the risk of weakening debt sustainability should efforts to achieve sufficient fiscal consolidation while maintaining robust growth disappoint.

The 2024 Article IV consultation focused on how the Togolese authorities can best (i) anchor macroeconomic stability by ensuring fiscal consolidation to enhance debt sustainability, (ii) conduct structural reforms to lay the basis for sustained growth, and (iii) strengthen social inclusion to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and support medium-term growth prospects.

Executive Board Assessment[2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities' policies, which enabled Togo to weather the series of shocks of recent years relatively well, with continued growth and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. However, significant challenges remain, including from the sharp increase in the debt burden in recent years and terrorist attacks at the northern border, while development needs remain acute. Against this background, Directors encouraged the authorities to maintain full commitment to the recently approved ECF arrangement with the Fund and continue their efforts to strengthen debt sustainability and implement reforms to boost inclusive growth and reduce poverty. These efforts should be well communicated to ensure social cohesion and supported by the Fund's capacity development.

Directors underscored the importance of continued growth‑friendly fiscal consolidation, guided by the dual fiscal anchor adopted under the ECF, to ensure debt sustainability and create fiscal buffers. They welcomed the recent large increase in fiscal revenue and called for further measures, comprising tax policy and revenue administration elements. Such measures could be considered as a part of an overarching fiscal strategy that considers taxation and spending together to help reach both efficiency and income distribution goals. In that context, creating space for priority spending, particularly on health and education, will be imperative to promote social inclusion while expanding cash transfers could further improve the social safety nets. The authorities should also continue to strengthen public financial management, including the oversight of state‑owned enterprises.

Directors noted that to boost growth it will be important to strengthen the business environment, accelerate productivity gains, and attract more private investment. Strengthening of the governance and anti‑corruption frameworks will be key. In this regard, they encouraged the authorities to request an IMF governance diagnostic assessment. Directors noted the dynamic economic activity at the special economic zone while encouraging cautious implementation of industrial policies, considering their cost and benefits. The authorities should also continue addressing the existing financial sector vulnerabilities and increasing the capacity of banks to provide credit to the private sector. Improving access to infrastructure and utilities and building climate resilience, potentially with support by an RSF arrangement, remains key. Further enhancing data provision to the Fund is also important.

It is expected that the next Article IV Consultation with Togo will be held in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. (Article IV consultations with countries benefitting from Fund financial arrangements are held every other year.) A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.