IMF Wraps Up 2024 Article IV Consultation With Grenada

Washington, DC: On January 24, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation ^[1] with Grenada.

Through end-June 2024, Grenada's economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in the fiscal position and reduction in public debt. The financial system remained stable. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl caused damage in excess of 16 percent of GDP on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as in the northern parishes of the main island. The authorities responded swiftly with a package of fiscal measures, including suspension of fiscal rules to permit temporary deficit spending in support of the recovery and reconstruction.

Grenada's near-term economic growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.9 percent in 2025, buoyed by limited hurricane damages to tourism infrastructure and the authorities' large recovery and reconstruction spending. Sizable government savings and triggering of disaster-contingent instruments create fiscal space for these spending needs. Assuming a subsequent timely return to the fiscal rules, public debt is projected to continue falling and reach the debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030.

Over the medium-term GDP growth is projected to slow given the tourism sector operates near its peak-season capacity. Key downside risks include the threat of further natural disasters, potential shocks to tourism demand, and the uncertain scale of future CBI inflows, while the domestic non-bank financial system faces rising vulnerabilities from the continued rapid expansion of credit unions and the rising costs of property insurance. Prospective hotel developments and public investment projects represent upside risks to the medium-term growth outlook.

Executive Board Assessment ^[2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Grenada's robust economic performance in 2023 and the first half of 2024, buoyed by strong tourism. Directors also commended the authorities' swift and prudently tailored response to Hurricane Beryl, which supported disaster-relief and helped mitigate the impact on economic growth. Noting that the medium-term outlook remains subject to risks from natural disasters, uncertain Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) flows, and other external shocks, they encouraged the authorities to exercise continued fiscal prudence and to pursue structural reforms to boost long-term growth and enhance resilience, while leveraging Fund technical assistance.

Directors welcomed Grenada's commitment to fiscal prudence and debt sustainability and emphasized the importance of a timely return to the suspended fiscal rules. In that context, they noted the need for continued expenditure prioritization and revenue mobilization to create fiscal space for future investment needs, including for climate resilience. Further strengthening public investment management and budget planning processes would also be important. Directors also saw merit in developing a more uniform framework for managing all CBI resources and encouraged continued progress in resolving outstanding official arrears.

Directors welcomed the banking system's resilience despite repeated shocks. They emphasized the need for vigilance and strengthened oversight in the rapidly expanding credit union sector. Directors encouraged strengthening data collection and regional collaboration in the property insurance sector, given rising premiums. They also agreed that further enhancements in the AML/CFT frameworks are essential, including to safeguard correspondent banking relationships.

Directors commended the authorities' implementation of Grenada's Disaster Resilience Strategy including investments in a risk-layering framework of disaster-contingency insurance and financing instruments. Moving forward and noting the risk of future natural disasters, they emphasized the importance of further advancing the energy transition and investment in disaster resilient infrastructure, with support from private financing.

Directors also encouraged sustained structural reform efforts to foster long-term growth, including investing in active labor market policies and continuing efforts to support off-season and niche tourism. Addressing data gaps is also important.

It is expected that the next Article IV Consultation with Grenada will be held on the standard 12-month consultation cycle.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .