IMF Wraps Up 2024 Article IV Talks with Brunei

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded on September 16, 2024 the Article IV consultation^[1] with Brunei Darussalam on a lapse-of-time basis^[2].

Brunei's real GDP rose by 1.4 percent in 2023 after two years of recession, mainly driven by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and the earlier-than-anticipated production from the new Salman oil field in Q4 2023. Inflation fell, reaching 0.4 percent in 2023 compared to 3.7 percent in 2022, supported by the easing of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, the softening commodity prices, as well as large subsidies and price controls. The fiscal and external position deteriorated in 2023 reflecting weaker O&G production and prices. The current account was also impacted by higher service imports and net income outflows. The banking sector remains stable, liquid, and well capitalized with declining non-performing loans.

The recovery is anticipated to continue and risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Growth is forecasted at about 2.4 percent in 2024 on the back of expected increase in O&G production, including from the new offshore oil fields and rebound in downstream sector, while domestic non-O&G non-tradeable sector growth is expected to plateau. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5 percent in 2024, and fiscal and external balances would stabilize alongside O&G prices. Near-term risks tilted downward due to external factors and O&G production challenges. New O&G field discoveries would provide significant upside, while accounting for decarbonization pressures. Structural reform implementation, with product diversification and technological advancement, could boost productivity, but economic and social challenges would remain with adoption of artificial intelligence.

Executive Board Assessment

In concluding the 2024 Article IV consultation with Brunei Darussalam, Executive Directors endorsed staff's appraisal, as follows:

Growth rebounded moderately in 2023. The stronger-than-expected growth turnaround was supported by a new O&G field coming to stream in late 2023, a high interest rate environment and post-pandemic momentum boosting finance, transport, and hospitality. However, persistent O&G production challenges and maintenance related disruptions in downstream activities along with lower O&G prices weakened the fiscal and external positions in 2023. Consequently, the external position for 2023 remained substantially weaker than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies and the output gap is assessed to be negative. Disinflation continued mainly due to easing supply chain disruptions and the softening of commodity prices, aided by continuing large scale subsidies and price controls.

The narrowing output gap, O&G revenue uncertainty and long-term decarbonization trends warrant a prudent fiscal stance, while protecting the vulnerable and public investment. While the use of fiscal buffers in FY 2023/24 was appropriate in view of the cyclical position and to support economic recovery, restoring fiscal buffers through growth-friendly fiscal consolidation should be prioritized going forward. This will require enhanced revenue generation, and could be supported by a low-rate carbon tax, and expenditure rationalization—including via more targeted subsidies. These efforts should be guided by a fiscal consolidation plan with clear fiscal targets. Plans to establish a MTFF and fiscal anchors, strengthening fiscal risk management and transparency are welcome.

The currency board arrangement with Singapore is sound and has played a key role in supporting Brunei's macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Efforts to improve monetary operations, by including Singapore's interbank transactions in its analysis to understand the influence of Singapore's policy rates since January 2024, and continuing to narrow the corridor by raising the SFDR, integrating I-bills into the Asset Maintenance Ratio and launching a website for better communication on monetary policies, are welcome. Enhancing inter-agency cooperation regarding the issuance and management of sukuks will be helpful. Over the medium-term, the BDCB is encouraged to build internal capacity in liquidity forecasting to calibrate the issuance of the I-bills and consider establishing a single treasury account.

The financial sector remained stable with strong capital and liquidity buffers. Systemic risk is assessed to be contained. Careful tracking of credit growth in both offshore and domestic personal loans is warranted, as declining oil prices could pose risks, despite low NPLs. Ensuring that that the foreign loans continue to be invested in highly credit-rated assets will help to mitigate credit risk. For domestic lending, continuing to deploy prudential measures like capping the Total Debt Service Ratio, assessing unsecured personal loan exposure, and maintaining NPL standards are welcome measures. Authorities are encouraged to stay on track with plans to implement Basel III standards for better liquidity management by the end-2024. Implementation of stress tests is recommended, while considering stress testing for climate transition and physical risks. Efforts to further strengthen prudential frameworks, develop a long-term sukuk markets, green taxonomy and unify disclosure standards, and to improve AML/CFT effectiveness will help to deepen markets, and support long-term green projects. The authorities' commitment to continue implementing the recommended actions in the APG's Mutual Evaluation Report is welcome.

The authorities' commitment to ambitious and sustained structural reforms will be critical to ensure growth and diversification, including by transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Reaching the authorities' net zero emissions goal by 2050, will require continued development of the non-O&G sector, including through adoption of green technologies. Continued skill development, while addressing AI-related challenges and closing structural gaps in the first-generation reform areas (external sector trade facilitation, improving business regulation, and governance) vis-à-vis top peers, will be key to facilitate FDI and PPPs. Completing the 2025 National Adaptation Plan and a Climate Vulnerability Assessment should support the prioritization of adaptation strategies.

Data provided to the Fund has some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance and data quality should be strengthened. Steps are needed to close the identified data gaps in national income, prices, external and fiscal sectors. Efforts for improving external sector data through a survey to better gauge trends in errors and omissions, and payables/receivables and strengthening public financial management (PFM) to build more transparent and accountable fiscal systems and aligning these further with GFSM (2014) are welcome, as are plans to enhance dissemination via the Fund's e-GDDS portal.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.