International Migration 13 March

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia - year ended June 2024
Latest revisions

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the January 2025 year compared with the January 2024 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 155,300 (± 1,100), down 31 percent
• migrant departures: 122,800 (± 900), up 18 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 32,500 (± 1,500), compared with a net gain of 121,800 (± 300).

The 122,800 migrant departures in the January 2025 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual migrant arrivals provisionally peaked at 234,800 in the year ended October 2023.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 135,500.

The long-term average for January years (2002 to 2019) before COVID-19 is 118,700 migrant arrivals, 91,700 migrant departures, and a net migration gain of 27,000.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 32,500 in the January 2025 year was made up of a net gain of 76,700 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 44,200 New Zealand citizens.

Text alternative for International migration estimates (provisional), year ended January 2025.

For migrant arrivals in the January 2025 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 25,800 (± 200) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• New Zealand: 25,000 (± 400)
• China: 17,600 (± 400)
• Philippines: 14,000 (± 100)
• Sri Lanka: 6,100 (± 100)
• United Kingdom: 5,600 (± 200)
• Australia: 4,700 (± 200)
• Fiji: 4,600 (± 100).

For migrant departures in the January 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 69,200 (± 700) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 7,900 (± 200)
• India: 5,800 (± 300)
• United Kingdom: 4,500 (± 100)
• Australia: 4,000 (± 200)
• United States: 2,900 (± 100)
• Philippines: 2,300 (± 100).

Citizens of India, the Philippines, and China drove net migration gains in the January 2025 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 76,700 in the January 2025 year compared with a net migration gain of 166,500 in the January 2024 year. The long-term average for the January years 2002 to 2019 is a net migration gain of 47,500 a year.

For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss of 44,200 in the January 2025 year is compared with a net migration loss of 44,700 in the January 2024 year. There was an average annual net migration loss of 27,100 in the January years 2002 to 2013 and average annual net migration loss of 7,500 in the January years 2014 to 2019.

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for January 2025 compared with January 2024 were:

• migrant arrivals: 14,500 (± 600), down 1 percent
• migrant departures: 10,900 (± 600), up 7 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 3,600 (± 900), compared with a net gain of 4,400 (± 200).

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia - year ended June 2024

There was a provisional net migration loss of 30,500 people to Australia in the year ended June 2024. This was made up of 16,900 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 47,500 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, and 3,000 a year from 2014 to 2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended June 2024 was made up of a net loss of 29,200 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 1,300 non-New Zealand citizens. This compared with a net migration loss to Australia of 23,200 in the year ended June 2023, made up of a net loss of 22,800 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 400 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the June 2024 year, 58 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2023 (published in July 2024 and based on provisional data to December 2023) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select 'Tourism', then 'International Travel and Migration - ITM'):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) - this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to January 2025.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) - this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to June 2024. Data for the September 2024 quarter will be available in late March 2025.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from October 2023 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

From August 2024 onwards, starting with the release of June 2024 estimates, a new training period was implemented for the international migration model.

Adjusting the training window for the international migration model (published 6 August 2024) and International migration: June 2024 (published 13 August 2024) have more information on the change of training period.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to January 2025 contains a history of published migration estimates and revisions.

This month, revisions to the preceding month December 2024 were:

• migrant arrivals down 300 (2 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 1,400 (7 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months (December 2023 to November 2024).
• migrant departures down 1,800 (14 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 1,800 (11 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration up 1,400. The average revision size to the preceding month was 1,000, with half of revisions upwards and half downwards, over the previous 12 months.

This month's revisions included downward revisions of migrant departures for the months of November and December 2024. The downward revisions partly reflect people living in New Zealand who departed in those months, and arrived back in New Zealand during January and February 2025, reducing their probability of being migrant departures.

Migrant departures for December 2024 were revised down by 1,800, driven by citizens of China (down 700) and New Zealand (down 600). Migrant departures for November 2024 were revised down by 1,000, driven by citizens of China (down 600) and New Zealand (down 200).

Text alternative for Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-January 2025.

This month, revisions to the preceding year (ended December 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 400 (0.2 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 5,900 (3 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months (year ended December 2023 to year ended November 2024)
• migrant departures down 6,600 (5 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 4,900 (4 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months
• net migration up 6,200. The average revision size to the preceding year was 3,400, and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternative for International migration estimates (provisional), year ended January 2025

Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended January 2025. Overall, net migration is 32,500, made up of a net loss of 44,200 NZ citizens (based on 25,000 migrant arrivals, a 12 percent increase on the year ended January 2024, and 69,200 migrant departures, a 3 percent increase) and a net gain of 76,700 non-NZ citizens (based on 130,300 migrant arrivals, a 36 percent decrease on the year ended January 2024, and 53,600 migrant departures, a 45 percent increase). Estimates are provisional as of 13 March 2025. Source: Stats NZ.

Text alternative for Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-January 2025

Graphs show monthly revisions to provisional migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for each month from November 2018 to January 2025. The data is shown in three line graphs arranged one after the other vertically, starting with migrant arrivals (top), followed by migrant departures (middle) and net migration (bottom). The vertical axis shows the estimated number of migrants. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis. Estimates from October 2023 onwards are provisional and subject to revision. Source: Stats NZ.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration - ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration - DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts - DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals - DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Provisional migration estimates

Comparisons between the January 2025 and 2024 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them - the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to January 2025 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus changes in the net migration estimates.

Technical enquiries

Louis Warren
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: February 2025 will be released on 14 April 2025.