Researchers say climate change-induced changes in the weather may have dire effects on mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in island nations.
They found while there's sufficient evidence to support the link between the changing climate and MBD, globally, there is still a lack of understanding about precisely what that impact will be in small island states vulnerable to climate-induced health crises.
Mohabeer Teeluck, a doctoral researcher at James Cook University's Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, led the study.
He said by the end of the 21st century, it's projected the global mean annual temperature will rise substantially above pre-industrial levels.
"This means there will be drastic changes in meteorological variables, which will likely have an implication for the proliferation of disease vectors such as mosquitoes.
"The World Health Organisation says that between 2030 and 2050, an additional 250,000 deaths will be attributed to climate sensitive diseases such as water-borne and vector-borne diseases," said Mr Teeluck.
He said the team conducted an analysis of studies to determine what connection they showed between weather and the frequency and transmission of MBD outbreaks in small islands with vulnerable public health systems.
"It's important we know exactly what risks small, less-developed nations face from inevitable climate changes. Both from a humanitarian perspective and, given the interconnectedness of the globe, from a self-preservation perspective too," said Mr Teeluck.
He said the relative risk of MBDs increased with temperature in 72% of the studies and rainfall enhanced dengue transmission in 84% of the studies.
"All the research discussing the effect of increasing humidity illustrated a similar trend of increasing MBDs, but increased wind speed tended to reduce MBDs," said Mr Teeluck.
He said local effects were extremely variable, with MBD transmission actually decreasing with some combinations of temperature, rainfall and humidity.
"Lab studies have shown that there is a complex interplay between meteorological variables and MBDs and therefore findings are likely to be highly specific to the local conditions in the study region," said Mr Teeluck.
He said the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the shortcomings of developing island nations' public health systems and researchers believe they would struggle to respond to disease outbreaks.
"The limitations of the studies and the non-linear relationship between weather conditions and MBD outbreaks accentuates the need for conducting further studies and predicting local effects - if we want to get on top of MBDs in these nations before they are out of control," said Mr Teeluck.
