Author
- Michelle Grattan
Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
The demography that makes up the Australian electorate is changing and as voters desert the major parties polls are becoming harder to read.
Kos Samaras is a director of the political consultancy firm Redbridge, which undertakes both quantitative research and focus groups. Samaras now views campaigns from the outside but in the past, as a former Labor Party official, he's experienced them from the insisde too.
On the state on the polls he says,
They're going to switch around a bit, but we are seeing some trends now that are quite obvious, and that is the consolidation of the Labor primary [vote]. Labor has been successful in bringing back some of those people that did move away from them to minor parties over the last 18 months in some key areas around the country.
On why Labor is doing better compared to the Coalition, Samaras says Labor starting early was key,
That's why it's important that when you are running a campaign, you must start very early and you must start before the writ is issued and that [is] why Labor has been in that space aggressively now for some time. And this is where I think Dutton and his team have really missed the mark. They've waited until the writ to start their campaign. They've allowed a vacuum to be created. Labor has filled it with their narrative and their story and their mission, and it's bearing fruit.
On the Trump effect and how that will play in this election, Samaras says Dutton should try to distance himself from the US president,
We do think that the Trump factor is having an impact, and we could see that in other countries as well. Canada is a really good example of that.
It's hard for Labor to convince Australians that Dutton is like Trump, but Dutton has throughout this campaign made some errors, particularly on issues around dual citizenship, cuts to the public service. These policies just kind of remind people that he's not Trump, because he's an established player, but he does have some element to him that is similar and that can only hurt him.
Now that Gen X and the millennials have overtaken the baby boomers as voters, Samaras say of these younger voters,
They want the system turned on its head. They actually want to see significant reform, and at the moment, they're just getting band-aids, and that's fundamentally the problem. Now they may indeed a portion of them eventually just vote for one or the other of the major parties and there will be a number of them that do that. But I wouldn't exactly describe that as enthusiastic support.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
