E wātea ana anō hoki a One in three children projected to be Māori i te reo Ingarihi.
E ai ki ngā tohu kotahi tamaiti i roto i te toru i Aotearoa ka kī he tamaiti Māori ia i te taenga ki ngā tau tuatahi i muri i 2040, me te piki o te kanorau o te taupori whānui o te motu, e ai ki te kōrero a Tatauranga Aotearoa i te rā nei.
"E ai ki ngā tirohanga whakamua ka tupu ngā taupori whānui o ngā rōpū momo ā-iwi nunui katoa i roto i ngā ngahuru tau e rua kei mua, ahakoa tērā, ka tere kē atu te tupunga o ētahi, tēnā i ētahi atu," e ai ki te kōrero a te kaiwhakahaere kairīwhi mō ngā whakatau tata me ngā matapae taupori, ki a Rebekah Hennessey.
Hei whakaata ngā pāpātanga tupu rerekē i ngā anga pakeke, ngā pāpātanga whānautanga, matenga hoki, ngā ia rerenga ki whenua kē, ā, ka pā ēnei āhua ki te hurihanga rōpū taupori.
"Ko ngā panonitanga taupori o ngā momo ā-iwi i ngā tau kōhungahunga tētahi kapohanga kanohi o te āhua o te taupori o Aotearoa o āpōpō."
Ngā taupori Māori, Moana-nui-a-Kiwa taitamariki
Mō ngā rōpū momo ā-iwi Māori, mō tō te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa hoki whānui, ko te matapae ka teitei kē atu te tupunga taupori o te wehenga pakeke taitamariki rawa (0-14 tau) i tō te taupori whānui. Ko te wāhanga o ngā tamariki e kī ana he Māori rātou e matapaetia ana ka piki i te 27 ōrau ki te 33 ōrau (tata ki te 1 i roto i te 3 tamariki) i te tau 2043. Hei whakaritenga, e matapaetia ana ka tupu te taupori Māori katoa mai i te 17 ōrau o te taupori o Aotearoa ki te 21 ōrau i roto i taua wā anō.
I roto i te momo ā-iwi Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, e matapaetia ana ka tupu te wehenga o ngā tamariki mai i te 14 ōrau i 2018 ki te 19 ōrau hei te tau 2043. E matapaetia ana ka tupu te taupori katoa o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa mai i te 8 ōrau o te taupori o Aotearoa ki te 11 ōrau.
Mō ngā rōpū momo ā-iwi Māori, mō tō te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa hoki, e ākina ana te tupunga e matapaetia ana e ngā anga tamariki iho, me ngā pāpātanga whānautanga kōhungahunga kei runga ake i te toharite.
He pūtake te hekenga ki Aotearoa o te tupunga o te taupori Āhia
He pērā anō te ia o te tupunga mō te rōpū taupori Āhia whānui. Ko te matapae mō ngā tau 2018-2043 ka piki te tupunga taupori o te wehenga pakeke taitamariki rawa nō te rōpū momo ā-iwi Āhia i te 16 ōrau ki te 25 ōrau (kotahi tamaiti i roto i te 4). Tērā pea ka piki te taupori Āhia i te 16 ōrau ki te 24 ōrau o te taupori o Aotearoa i roto i taua wā anō. Kāore i pēnei me ngā rōpū momo ā-iwi Māori, Moana-nui-a-Kiwa rānei, tata ki te 60 ōrau o te taupori Āhia ka takea mai i te hekenga mai i whenua kē more, ā, ko tōna 40 ōrau he pikinga nā te whānautanga pēpē (ngā whānautanga ina tangohia ngā matenga).
Te pōturi kē atu o te tupunga o te taupori 'Ūropi, Tētahi atu rānei'
Ahakoa ka tupu tonu te taupori momo ā-iwi ''Ūropi, Tētahi atu rānei' tērā pea ka heke tōna wāwāhanga o te taupori nui tonu i te 70 ōrau i te tau 2018 ki te 65 ōrau i te tau 2043. Ahakoa tērā, he iti iho te hekenga i te wehenga tau 0-14 tau, ā, ko te hekenga wāwāhanga taupori i reira he hekenga i te 67 ōrau ki te 66 ōrau (tata ki te 2 i roto i te 3 tamariki).
E tupu tonu ana hoki te taupori MELAA
E matapaetia ana ka piki te wāwāhanga taupori o te rōpū momo ā-iwi, ahakoa he rōpū whānui ōna toronga, e kīa nei te MELAA o ngā momo ā-iwi o Te Rāwhiti ki Waenganui (Middle Eastern), Amerika Rātini, Āwherikana hoki - i te taupori katoa o Aotearoa i te 2 ōrau ki te 3 ōrau i waenga i te tau 2018 me te tau 2043. I waenga i ngā tamariki, e matapaetia ana ka piki tēnei wehenga i te 2 ōrau ki te 4 ōrau.
Ngā tāngata e piri ana ki ngā momo ā-iwi maha
Tērā anō te pikinga ake o ngā tamariki e piri ana ki ngā momo ā-iwi maha, ā, hei take tēnei o te tupunga o te kanorau o ngā momo ā-iwi o Aotearoa.
"Ka piki te maha o ngā momo ā-iwi o te tamariki, hei whakaata tēnei i te momo ā-iwi rerekē o te whaea me te matua tāne," te kī a Rebekah.
Ka uru te tangata ki ia momo ā-iwi e piri nei ia. Hei hua o tēnei, ka īnakinaki ngā taupori momo ā-iwi, ā, e kore e taea te whakataurite te tapeke ki te taupori katoa o Aotearoa.
| Hei te 30 Pipiri | Māori | Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa | "Ūropi | Āhia | MELAA | Hainīhi | Īnia | Hāmoa |
| 2018 | 27.02 | 14.12 | Tētahi atu rānei" | 16.21 | 1.92 | 5.48 | 5.37 | 6.9 |
| 2019 | 27 | 14.22 | 67.3 | 16.92 | 2.09 | 5.7 | 5.71 | 6.98 |
| 2020 | 27.02 | 14.49 | 66.85 | 17.65 | 2.28 | 5.82 | 6.13 | 7.12 |
| 2021 | 27.2 | 14.58 | 66.81 | 18 | 2.32 | 5.88 | 6.36 | 7.22 |
| 2022 | 27.41 | 14.75 | 66.41 | 18.49 | 2.39 | 5.95 | 6.68 | 7.37 |
| 2023 | 27.72 | 14.98 | 66.01 | 19.14 | 2.48 | 6.07 | 7.06 | 7.51 |
| 2024 | 28.02 | 15.18 | 65.99 | 19.78 | 2.57 | 6.18 | 7.44 | 7.66 |
| 2025 | 28.22 | 15.35 | 65.94 | 20.47 | 2.69 | 6.29 | 7.82 | 7.78 |
| 2026 | 28.43 | 15.48 | 65.85 | 21.09 | 2.79 | 6.34 | 8.16 | 7.9 |
| 2027 | 28.65 | 15.64 | 65.71 | 21.61 | 2.88 | 6.35 | 8.47 | 8.02 |
| 2028 | 28.9 | 15.83 | 65.63 | 22 | 2.97 | 6.23 | 8.73 | 8.17 |
| 2029 | 29.18 | 16.02 | 65.63 | 22.38 | 3.05 | 6.17 | 8.96 | 8.33 |
| 2030 | 29.47 | 16.25 | 65.63 | 22.64 | 3.12 | 6.01 | 9.15 | 8.51 |
| 2031 | 29.74 | 16.46 | 65.65 | 22.94 | 3.2 | 5.92 | 9.31 | 8.66 |
| 2032 | 30.07 | 16.71 | 65.63 | 23.1 | 3.26 | 5.75 | 9.43 | 8.83 |
| 2033 | 30.33 | 16.91 | 65.68 | 23.24 | 3.32 | 5.65 | 9.5 | 8.98 |
| 2034 | 30.67 | 17.14 | 65.68 | 23.38 | 3.34 | 5.6 | 9.54 | 9.14 |
| 2035 | 30.98 | 17.37 | 65.8 | 23.46 | 3.36 | 5.53 | 9.55 | 9.27 |
| 2036 | 31.36 | 17.67 | 65.95 | 23.62 | 3.39 | 5.55 | 9.55 | 9.46 |
| 2037 | 31.68 | 17.93 | 66.24 | 23.72 | 3.41 | 5.58 | 9.53 | 9.61 |
| 2038 | 31.94 | 18.15 | 66.36 | 23.83 | 3.45 | 5.62 | 9.52 | 9.74 |
| 2039 | 32.19 | 18.36 | 66.33 | 24 | 3.47 | 5.68 | 9.54 | 9.86 |
| 2040 | 32.44 | 18.55 | 66.26 | 24.22 | 3.51 | 5.77 | 9.58 | 9.98 |
| 2041 | 32.68 | 18.73 | 66.18 | 24.5 | 3.55 | 5.87 | 9.66 | 10.09 |
| 2042 | 32.92 | 18.9 | 66.05 | 24.82 | 3.6 | 6 | 9.76 | 10.19 |
| 2043 | 33.16 | 19.06 | 65.91 | 25.19 | 3.66 | 6.15 | 9.9 | 10.27 |
Ko tā ngā matapae momo ā-iwi ā-motu: 2018(base)-2043 (update) he hora i ētahi atu taipitopito mō ēnei panonitanga.
Ko te tūmanako ka kaha tonu te tupu o ngā taupori Āhia, Māori, Moana-nui-a-Kiwa anō hoki
He maha ngā tangata nō ngā momo ā-iwi maha i roto i te rōpū momo ā-iwi Āhia whānui, tae atu ki te Hainīhi, me te Īnia. E waitohu ana te matapae i te tau waenga tērā pea ka piki ake te taupori o Āhia i te 1 miriona hei ngā tau mutunga o te ngahuru tau mai i 2020, ā, ka piki kē atu ki runga ake i te taupori Māori hei taua wā, tōna tatanga nei.
E matapaetia ana ka huarua te rōpū whāiti Āhia atu i 2018 ki 2043, ā, ka piki pea ki runga ake i te haurua miriona tāngata i ngā tau tuatahi i muri i 2040.
Hei ngā tau mutunga o te ngahuru tau 2020, engari i muri kē i te pikinga o te taupori o Āhia ki reira, ka piki te tokomaha o ngāi Māori ki runga ake i te 1 miriona tāngata. E ai ki ngā matapae ka piki te taupori whānui o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki runga ake i te haurua miriona hei taua wā.
| Hei te 30 Pipiri | Māori | Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa | "Ūropi | Āhia | MELAA | Hainīhi | Īnia | Hāmoa |
| 2001 | 15.1 | 6.7 | Tētahi atu rānei" | 7 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| 2002 | 15.1 | 6.8 | 79.2 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2 | 3.4 |
| 2003 | 15 | 6.9 | 78.7 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| 2004 | 14.9 | 7 | 78.2 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| 2005 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 77.8 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 14.9 | 7.2 | 77.3 | 9.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| 2007 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 76.8 | 10 | 1 | 4.1 | 3 | 3.6 |
| 2008 | 15.6 | 7.4 | 76.5 | 10.4 | 1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 2009 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 76.2 | 10.7 | 1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 2010 | 16.1 | 7.5 | 75.8 | 11.1 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| 2011 | 16.3 | 7.6 | 75.5 | 11.5 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 2012 | 16.5 | 7.7 | 75.2 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 2013 | 16.7 | 7.8 | 74.9 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 4 | 3.8 |
| 2014 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 74.6 | 12.9 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| 2015 | 16.7 | 8 | 73.7 | 13.6 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| 2016 | 16.7 | 8.1 | 72.8 | 14.3 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| 2017 | 16.7 | 8.2 | 72 | 15 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| 2018 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 71.1 | 15.7 | 1.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4 |
| 2019 | 16.7 | 8.4 | 70.2 | 16.2 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4 |
| 2020 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 69.9 | 17 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 4 |
| 2021 | 17.1 | 8.6 | 69.3 | 17.1 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| 2022 | 17.3 | 9 | 69.4 | 16.6 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.4 |
| 2023 | 17.6 | 9.1 | 69.7 | 16.7 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 6 | 4.4 |
| 2024 | 17.8 | 9.2 | 69.7 | 17 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | 9.4 | 69.6 | 17.3 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.6 |
| 2026 | 18.1 | 9.4 | 69.5 | 17.7 | 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 |
| 2027 | 18.3 | 9.5 | 69.2 | 18.1 | 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| 2028 | 18.4 | 9.6 | 69 | 18.6 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| 2029 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 68.7 | 19 | 2.1 | 6 | 7 | 4.8 |
| 2030 | 18.7 | 9.8 | 68.5 | 19.4 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| 2031 | 18.9 | 9.9 | 68.3 | 19.8 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| 2032 | 19 | 10 | 68 | 20.2 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 2033 | 19.2 | 10.1 | 67.8 | 20.6 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 5 |
| 2034 | 19.4 | 10.2 | 67.6 | 20.9 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 5.1 |
| 2035 | 19.5 | 10.3 | 67.3 | 21.3 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 5.2 |
| 2036 | 19.7 | 10.4 | 67.1 | 21.7 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 5.2 |
| 2037 | 19.9 | 10.6 | 66.9 | 22.1 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.3 |
| 2038 | 20 | 10.7 | 66.7 | 22.5 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 |
| 2039 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 66.5 | 22.9 | 2.6 | 7 | 8.5 | 5.4 |
| 2040 | 20.4 | 10.9 | 66.2 | 23.3 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.5 |
| 2041 | 20.6 | 11 | 66 | 23.7 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 |
| 2042 | 20.7 | 11.1 | 65.8 | 24.1 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 9 | 5.6 |
| 2043 | 20.9 | 11.2 | 65.6 | 24.5 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.7 |
| Hei te 30 Pipiri | Māori | Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa | "Ūropi | Āhia | MELAA | Hainīhi | Īnia | Hāmoa |
| 2001 | 585900 | 261800 | Tētahi atu rānei" | 272500 | 27600 | 120400 | 71200 | 129900 |
| 2002 | 594900 | 269800 | 3074000 | 298900 | 29800 | 130200 | 80800 | 133700 |
| 2003 | 602900 | 277700 | 3101900 | 325300 | 32000 | 139900 | 90400 | 137400 |
| 2004 | 610700 | 285700 | 3129700 | 351600 | 34200 | 149700 | 100000 | 141200 |
| 2005 | 617600 | 293600 | 3157600 | 378000 | 36400 | 159400 | 109600 | 144900 |
| 2006 | 624300 | 301600 | 3185400 | 404400 | 38600 | 169200 | 119200 | 148700 |
| 2007 | 643600 | 307700 | 3213300 | 424000 | 40700 | 173200 | 127700 | 151400 |
| 2008 | 662700 | 313800 | 3227400 | 443500 | 42700 | 177200 | 136100 | 154100 |
| 2009 | 681000 | 319900 | 3241500 | 463100 | 44800 | 181200 | 144600 | 156800 |
| 2010 | 699200 | 326100 | 3255600 | 482600 | 46900 | 185200 | 153000 | 159600 |
| 2011 | 713900 | 332200 | 3269800 | 502200 | 49000 | 189200 | 161500 | 162300 |
| 2012 | 726400 | 338300 | 3283900 | 521700 | 51000 | 193200 | 169900 | 165000 |
| 2013 | 741500 | 344400 | 3298000 | 541300 | 53100 | 197200 | 178400 | 167700 |
| 2014 | 753800 | 357100 | 3312100 | 587200 | 57900 | 211800 | 194900 | 173200 |
| 2015 | 768700 | 369700 | 3338000 | 633000 | 62600 | 226400 | 211300 | 178700 |
| 2016 | 785500 | 382400 | 3364000 | 678900 | 67400 | 240900 | 227800 | 184200 |
| 2017 | 801700 | 395000 | 3389900 | 724700 | 72200 | 255500 | 244300 | 189700 |
| 2018 | 816500 | 407700 | 3415800 | 770600 | 77000 | 270100 | 260800 | 195100 |
| 2019 | 832400 | 419500 | 3441700 | 808000 | 83600 | 280400 | 273800 | 201200 |
| 2020 | 852400 | 440600 | 3478100 | 846900 | 91300 | 283900 | 292100 | 211400 |
| 2021 | 872400 | 449300 | 3536000 | 846500 | 92100 | 280800 | 294600 | 217400 |
| 2022 | 889000 | 459200 | 3559300 | 850400 | 92800 | 277700 | 300400 | 223600 |
| 2023 | 905800 | 469500 | 3573600 | 861000 | 94500 | 279600 | 308000 | 229100 |
| 2024 | 922700 | 478900 | 3588700 | 878100 | 97100 | 283500 | 317500 | 234100 |
| 2025 | 938600 | 487900 | 3605500 | 901900 | 100800 | 289300 | 328800 | 238900 |
| 2026 | 954600 | 497000 | 3623900 | 932600 | 104400 | 298100 | 340900 | 243800 |
| 2027 | 970600 | 506300 | 3642900 | 963000 | 108000 | 306800 | 352900 | 248700 |
| 2028 | 986800 | 515600 | 3661400 | 993400 | 111600 | 315400 | 364800 | 253700 |
| 2029 | 1003000 | 525000 | 3679400 | 1023600 | 115200 | 323900 | 376600 | 258800 |
| 2030 | 1019400 | 534500 | 3696800 | 1053700 | 118800 | 332200 | 388300 | 264000 |
| 2031 | 1035800 | 544200 | 3713700 | 1083800 | 122500 | 340500 | 400000 | 269200 |
| 2032 | 1052300 | 553900 | 3729800 | 1113700 | 126100 | 348600 | 411600 | 274500 |
| 2033 | 1068900 | 563600 | 3745100 | 1143700 | 129700 | 356600 | 423200 | 279800 |
| 2034 | 1085600 | 573500 | 3759700 | 1173700 | 133400 | 364500 | 434800 | 285200 |
| 2035 | 1102300 | 583400 | 3773600 | 1203700 | 137000 | 372300 | 446500 | 290600 |
| 2036 | 1119200 | 593400 | 3786800 | 1233800 | 140700 | 380100 | 458300 | 296100 |
| 2037 | 1136200 | 603400 | 3799500 | 1264100 | 144400 | 387900 | 470200 | 301600 |
| 2038 | 1153200 | 613500 | 3811600 | 1294500 | 148200 | 395600 | 482100 | 307100 |
| 2039 | 1170400 | 623600 | 3823000 | 1325100 | 152000 | 403400 | 494200 | 312700 |
| 2040 | 1187600 | 633800 | 3833900 | 1355800 | 155800 | 411300 | 506400 | 318300 |
| 2041 | 1204900 | 644000 | 3844200 | 1386700 | 159700 | 419200 | 518800 | 323900 |
| 2042 | 1222300 | 654300 | 3853900 | 1417900 | 163600 | 427300 | 531300 | 329600 |
| 2043 | 1239800 | 664600 | 3863100 | 1449200 | 167600 | 435400 | 544000 | 335300 |
Mō ēnei matapae
Ko ngā matapae taupori momo ā-iwi ā-motu he tūtohu i te rahi me te anga o ngā taupori kei mua, mā te momo ā-iwi, e noho ana i te nuinga o te wā i Aotearoa. Hei tūtohu ēnei i ētahi putanga tērā pea ka kitea, nā ētahi tuinga o te whāinga hua, o te matenga, o te hekenga, me ngā whakatau mō te kaha o te whakawhitinga ki momo ā-iwi kē. Ka āta whakaaro ēnei matapae mō ngā tautuhitanga kaupapahere o nāianei, te pānga o COVID-19, me ngā ia taupori o tau kē. Kāore e tahuri ki te matapae i ngā panonitanga kaupapahere nunui kei mua, tērā pea ka pā ki te panonitanga taupori.
Kei ARIA ētahi atu mōhiotanga mō ngā karangatanga momo ā-iwi e whakamahia ana mō ēnei raraunga.
