The weak La Niña event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update.
Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal. There is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during March-May 2025, increasing to 70 % for April-June 2025.
Meanwhile, the probability of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period (March to June). However, uncertainty in the long-lead forecasts is higher than usual due to the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known challenge in long-term forecasts of El Nino and La Niña.
