With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday's Western Australian election, the ABC is calling 40 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, five for the Liberals and four for the Nationals, with ten remaining undecided.
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Vote shares are 41.8% Labor (down 18.1% since Labor's massive 2021 win), 28.6% Liberals (up 7.3%), 5.1% Nationals (up 1.1%), 10.5% Greens (up 3.6%), 3.7% One Nation (up 2.4%), 3.1% Australian Christians (up 1.6%), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (up 1.9%) and 3.6% independents (up 2.9%).
While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn't go directly to the Liberals and Nationals, with these parties' combined votes up 8.4%.
The ABC's two-party estimate shows a Labor win by 58.3-41.7, an 11.3% swing to the Liberals and Nationals from the 69.7-30.3 Labor margin at the 2021 election, which was a record victory in Australia for either major party at any state or federal election.
The Poll Bludger's results have Labor leads in 45 of the 59 seats, the Liberals in seven, the Nationals in six and one independent lead. If these are the final numbers, Labor would lose eight seats from 2021 , with the Liberals gaining five, the Nationals two and independents one.
The Poll Bludger's two-party estimate is a little worse for Labor than the ABC's, with a Labor lead by 57.4-42.6, a 12.2% swing to the Liberals and Nationals. If the Poll Bludger's two-party estimate is right, the final Newspoll and DemosAU polls will be correct, while if the ABC's is right, they will have understated Labor.
I said in my preview article that polls suggested that Labor would be well down on 2021, but that they would have a bigger win than in 2017 (41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5-44.5). The results show this will be the case. This will be the third landslide in a row for Labor in WA.
Most seats have counted their pre-poll votes and postal votes that arrived before election day. Remaining votes will mostly be absent votes (pre-poll and election day). These votes were cast outside a voter's home electorate, and need to be posted back to the home electorate before they can be counted. In past elections, absent votes have assisted Labor.
There are also seats, such as Fremantle and Pilbara , where no two-candidate count has yet been provided. In those seats, the electoral commission initially selected the wrong two candidates and needs to re-do the two-candidate count. Fremantle is the only seat likely to be won by a non-major party candidate.
Federal implications and the upper house
I don't think there are many federal implications from state elections, but this election will give a morale boost for federal Labor after losing the Queensland election last October and being narrowly behind the Coalition in the polls since December.
When a state party is the same as the federal government, that party is federally dragged, and performs worse than it would if the opposite party held government federally. Labor's big win does not suggest federal drag was a factor in WA.
However, WA accounts for only 16 of the 150 federal seats . Victoria, where federal Labor is being dragged down by an unpopular state Labor government, has 38 seats.
The Poll Bludger wrote that the Liberals had done poorly in swing terms since the 2021 election in affluent Perth seats, suggesting that affluent metropolitan federal seats won't swing back to the Liberals, and teal independents should retain their seats.
In my preview article, I wrote that during the last term Labor had scrapped the old very malapportioned upper house system, and all 37 upper house members will be elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota is 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%.
In the upper house , 46.7% of enrolled voters have been counted, well behind the 61.3% in the lower house. Labor has 41.3%, the Liberals 27.9%, the Nationals 5.6%, the Greens 10.8%, One Nation 3.4%, Legalise Cannabis 2.8%, the Christians 2.6%, an independent group 1.3% and Animal Justice 1.1%.
On current counts, Labor would win 15 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Nationals two, the Greens four, One Nation one, Legalise Cannabis one and the Christians one. That would leave three seats undecided, with Labor, the Liberals and the independent group ahead.
However, there's much more counting to go in the upper house, and the current counts don't include below the line votes. The major parties do relatively badly on below the line votes and the Greens relatively well.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
