Though light rain is expected to ease fires in Southern California this weekend, it also poses landslide risks in burn areas — and won't end local fire risk. The drizzle is "enough to tamp down but not end fire season," says UCLA and UC ANR climate scientist Daniel Swain.
Join Swain for another live briefing this afternoon with updates on new fires in greater L.A., the rain and snow to come, and the fire outlook in February:
YouTube Office Hours with Daniel Swain
Friday, Jan. 24, 3 p.m. PT/6 p.m. ET
From Swain's discussion in his Jan. 22 Office Hours:
More fire weather and risk after the rain: "I think this [rainy] period will very likely be a period of greatly reduced fire risk. Once we get back to the end of the first week in February, though, unless it rains again, we're going to be at the mercy of the winds, because all it will take is one Santa Ana event to evaporate all of this water, and we'll be right back to where we started."
Landslide risk: "Isolated areas, particularly in the mountains, could see very intense downpours of a half an inch or an inch of rain in an hour. If that happens over a recent wildfire burn area, particularly on the Eaton or Palisades fires — or even the Line or Bridge fires from earlier in the year in September — there is going to be a risk of significant and potentially deadly debris flows. … There's very little risk from this event if you're not in or near a wildfire burn area, so this will be a net beneficial rain for 95% of people, but it could be quite dangerous for the 5% of people who live in or near those fire zones susceptible to debris flows. … If you are evacuated, there may be new evacuation orders or warnings for debris flow risk this weekend."
